What are the most unsuccessful privatisations in Bulgaria?
I will not provide names, but the privatisation in the banking sector could have happened at a later stage or it could have been sold at better prices. We have such examples in the energy sector (beyond electricity) as well. In the field of electric power, it is enough to look at the very favourable conditions available to the management of ContourGlobal Maritsa East 3 TPP and AES Maritza East 1. There are other examples but the Bulgarian privatisation could have been implemented at a higher price in general.
Privatisation often takes place in adverse economic times and market prices are always low then.
If more marketing efforts were made like engaging a major investment bank from London, for example. It may seem expensive at first but the effect of such a service accumulates at the end of the programme. Such companies can make the marketing process much better, which gives much better results if no efforts in the preparation process have been made.
Privatisation is the basis of the Greek government programme to restore economic growth. It has been delayed for almost two years now but analysts say that the privatisation is the only trump card of the country in order for it to emerge from the recession. Do you think that a dynamic privatisation programme could be the driver of economic growth for a country like Greece?
I agree that privatisation could be a driver of economic growth but we see that it has been delayed for a few years in Greece. Now, Greece has reached the moment when it has to agree with everything those abroad say or to formally declare state bankruptcy. It depends on the Greek authorities how or whether they will implement the privatisation programme. It will not be an easy task for sure because many foreign companies do not trust the Greek environment today.
What do you think are the strong points of the Greek privatisation programme and what can we expect in the near future?
These are telecommunications, banking and other industries in which Greek business has a strong influence in the region. Whether they will be willing to part with some of these assets or not is another matter. We do not expect major changes in the short term. An important issue remains the economy and the political decisions after the parliamentary elections in Germany in the autumn. It has been necessary to support Greece because of the systemic effects of the crisis until recently. Now, immediate measures with medium-term effect are necessary because otherwise things will continue to deteriorate. Greece's debts are so great that if no action is taken, they will be permanently unstable.
Greece has a long way to go but I would like to go back to Bulgaria for a moment. We have made it clear that our country has strategic investors and a stable macroeconomic framework. At the same time, there is no economic growth and it remains a poor country. What are the main reasons?
Our agriculture and related sectors are in extremely poor condition. It could have been one of the three key sectors to become a driver of economic growth, but we never developed it.
We are very well aware of French agricultural companies operating successfully in cooperatives, and we ourselves destroyed this sector with the changes imposed in 1990-1992. Agriculture could have been one of the driving forces of the Bulgarian production. We divided the land into small fragments between large numbers of owners in the cities, depopulated the villages and instead of consolidating and strengthening agriculture, we destroyed it. Agricultural cooperatives in France buy a large quantity of consumables at discounted prices; the farmers work together and can be competitive as a result.
Another profitable sector that has great potential for development is energy and electric power in particular. Bulgaria is in the centre of the Balkans geographically and it is not very easy to circumvent it. We have been traditionally exporting electricity to the region. This sector is associated with long-term investment and can develop well enough to provide cheap electricity to avoid protests like those we faced this winter. There must be reasonable projects to support the sector and keep us a step ahead of the competition, not to run after countries such as Turkey or Romania potentially in the future. This strategic sector can bring a lot of revenue, supply cheaper electricity, and allow the households and the businesses that operate in Bulgaria to take a breath.
These are the two sectors that could have been very competitive, but they were not sufficiently addressed. Very serious mistakes were made in agriculture and now, it is not easy for the people to return to the villages. As regards electric power, I do not see it going in the right direction either.
How has the Greek crisis affected Bulgaria? What are the negative effects and are there positive effects?
I do not think that the Greek crisis has caused any drastic damage to the Bulgarian economy. The effect of the financial crisis on the neighbouring country is rather indirect. In terms of uncertainty associated with our southern neighbour, including uprisings, strikes and riots, some foreign investors may have preferred to wait for some stabilisation before entering the Bulgarian market. The situation in Greece in general has a negative influence on the Balkans, but it is indirect and cannot be easily neutralized unfortunately.
It would be an exaggeration to speak about significant positive effects of the crisis. Small Greek businesses have transferred to the country but this is tax migration in practice.