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Third scenario: includes the exit of Greece from the Eurozone without the crisis spreading to other member states. Greece’s withdrawal pushes for European economic and political integration.

Fourth scenario: Greece leaves the Euro, but the other Eurozone countries cannot agree on the next necessary steps. Spreads on government bonds become bigger, bank runs increase and the Euro reaches a point of no return.

Why exiting the Eurozone is not viable

"Things will become worse if Greece leaves the Eurozone”

The probability of Greece leaving the Eurozone in the next 12 months is much lower than the markets expect, because it is in the interest of the country and Europe for Greece to remain in the Eurozone. According to the markets the likelihood of Greece abandoning the common currency is about 50 percent, believes Credit Suisse.

As noted by its representatives, in the event of a return to the Drachma, the new currency will be devalued by 50 percent and as a result the country will lose 50 percent of its savings and wealth. Since Greek imports constitute 30 percent of GDP, inflation is expected to exceed 30 percent, which will neutralize much of the competitive benefits.

Furthermore, given that exports account for only 25 percent of GDP and at least half of them come from sectors which are not flexible or not affected by currency depreciation (e.g. shipping works in US Dollars), those benefits will be small. "It is not advantageous for Greece to leave the Eurozone", says S & P analyst Moritz Kraemer, responsible for the ratings of European countries. He also added that "the consequences will be catastrophic, as the banking system will collapse, but the Eurozone will be able to cope with the exit of Greece from the Eurozone."

"The only reason to expect Greece to remain in the Eurozone is that no matter how bad things are now, they will be much worse if Greece exits the Eurozone", says Marc Chandler, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

However, as noted for Reuters by Marios Efhtimiopoulos, a professor at Johns Hopkins University - Centre for Advanced International Studies and chairman of the think tank Global Strategy, “there will be chaos. Banks will collapse and will have to be nationalized. Salaries will not be paid in cash but only in coupons."

Direct losses from the exit of Greece from the Eurozone are estimated at 600 billion Euros, which together with indirect losses could exceed 1.5 trillion Euros.