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- The popularity of the Party of Justice and Development of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is declining. Could he be compensated until the local elections in March? Do you expect a "change of baton" in key cities such as Istanbul, Bursa, Izmir, and Ankara?
- I think the Turks will vote in the local elections according to several criteria. The common opinion is that the present mayors from the ruling party with whom the people are pleased because they have really worked for the citizens and been tested will be tested again. Everyone can see that many modern buildings have been erected as well as social facilities, sports complexes, 2- and 4-lane roads and other transport services by air, land and water, tunnels that shorten distances, high-speed trains, public social housing, and shelters for the elderly and orphans. On the other hand, it is no secret that one cannot deny the disappointment in the Party of Justice and Development among the ordinary believers and the religious people. In Islam, "do not steal, do not lie, do not be proud ..." are some of the most important rules. "To ‘eat’ the right of the innocent and the poor ("hak") is sinful ("haram"), which is the opposite of permissible ("halal"). Therefore, one can forecast a protest vote among the religious people who have so far voted for this party. The government, however, has its own firm core of voters, who will blindly vote for their leader Erdogan as they believe in him and are convinced that he is the victim of a "dirty enemy conspiracy". This can mobilize his electorate even more and he can win the local and general elections, thus becoming the head of state through the first direct presidential elections in Turkey. Also, the rapprochement on the part of Erdogan with the Kurdish leaders from Iraqi Kurdistan, with Massoud Barzani and his team, and the ongoing negotiations, mediated by the services, between the government and PKK in Kandil (northern Iraq) and PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who is sentenced to life imprisonment on the island of Imrali, as part of the "Kurdish opening" for a lasting and fair settlement of the Kurdish issue that has lasted for 35 years are the subject of great criticism from those sympathizers who support more nationalist views. It would not be a surprise if they support the nominees for mayors of the Nationalist Party instead of the nominees of the government. Last but not least, an important factor will be the further foreign policy role of the Party of Justice and Development as well as the diplomatic steps to improve the relations with Iraq, Iran, Israel, Armenia, and resolve the Cyprus issue. However, diplomacy seems to be put aside in favour of the election results. The latest opinion polls show a 10% decrease, to 39.9%, in the support for the government if the elections were held today. In Istanbul, the difference between current Mayor Kadir Topbas and Mustafa Saragyul (formerly the successful mayor of Istanbul's Sisli), who is nominated by the opposition party of Social Democrats, is only 7%-8% in favour of the AKP. Ankara would rather be surprised if the AKP candidate Melih Gokcek did not win the mayoral post for the 5^th consecutive time. If the candidates for mayors of the ruling party won the municipal elections in major strategic cities, as shown by forecasts, excluding Izmir, which has never elected a representative of the Party of Justice and Development, this would mean that Erdogan would have enough support for the next election round. This could be interpreted as tightening the anti-democratic measures of the regime, which will gradually turn from parliamentary democracy to a presidential republic. The restraint for now is the lack of consensus between the political forces in terms of changing the constitution. This is because the negotiations of the specially appointed committee were again suspended a few months ago, after it agreed on just 60 points, just because of the insistence of the government representatives to replace some of the so far irreplaceable members, who were guaranteeing the parliamentary and secular character of the system. Let me recall that the 4^th package of democratization of the government has made ​​possible the free entry of veiled female deputies in the Majlis, 90 years after the founding of modern Turkey. This resulted in the revocation of one of Ataturk’s revolutionary laws on clothing in public institutions and the thinning of the strict line of the Kemalist regime, dividing the state affairs from the religious ones.