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Internal transactions do not seem to be enough to change the general view of the banking sector significantly, unless some powerful Greek projects take part. And vice versa- a powerful foreign bank team in some of the leading Greek banks would be much more welcomed. As for the stock board, Merit Securities Analyst Nikos Hristodoulou, assesses bank shares to continue fluctuating during the entire month, not excluding a possible return to their lower levels. He stresses that banks may have a positive role, be it in the short term, only if the “haircut” scenario for the Greek bonds is pushed at leas 2 or 3 years further.

“Selected” shares in institutional investors’ portfolios

Shares of companies involved in major roadshows, organized by ΕΧΑΕ in New York and London, are those that primarily attract the interest of foreign, but also Greek investors, along with those located in the privatization "package".

Some large and mid-cap companies, based on their foreign affinity and future development prospects, further complete the list of “selected” shares. Naturally, in the foreground lies the banking sector, which despite absorbing most of the pressure, continues to be the main target of foreign investors, though in the past year and a half speculative hedge funds seem to be the only ones showing interest.

The stock environment hosts most of the scenarios for bank mergers, although these are procedures dispersed with difficulties.

The most popular one – about the merger between the National Bank of Greece and Alpha Bank seems to be fading, following the collapse of recent negotiations between the two managements. This does not, however, exclude a future merger, given the circumstances change.

The second scenario, which analysts believe more likely, is a deal between the National Bank of Greece, Eurobank and the Saving Bank, which is to create a powerful Greek financial-credit group which will be able to present the interbank market with considerably stronger profile. Others favour the possible merger between Eurobank and Alpha Bank, so they can work towards economies and avoid new increase in equity, in light of the reduced liquidity in Greece, and internationally.

Such an action may be accelerated by the accomplishment of another scenario, according to which Citigroup has shown interest in the National Bank of Greece…

In Piraeus Bank, foreign investment interest is currently focused on the purchase of substantial percentage of equity, since the Czech PPF Group (owned by billionaire Petr Kelner) and ICT Group (owned by the Russian Aleksander Nesis) have already acquired 11% of the bank’s equity.

Besides large Greek banking groups, activity has been detected with firm securities, included in the privatization program of 2013. Ports, water supply companies, the National Electrical Company and OPAP are most attractive to foreign investors, showing strong indications and room for profits even in time of crisis.

Reactions

Strong political reactions have been expresses regarding the above-mentioned privatizations (even by cabinet members) and by those employed in the companies. Government banking institutions (the Saving Bank and the Agricultural Bank) are also being monitored by foreign investors, but have been involved in various merger plans as well, which are likely to be prolonged in time. The telecommunications company presents good opportunity after the Greek state sold 10% to Deutsche Telekom with another 6% soon to follow.

Among the rest of the shares traded in the Athens stock exchange, refineries (Greek Petrol, Motor Oil) are of interest due to their strong positions in circumstances of crisis, achieved through the substantial investment they received during the past years, together with the energy sector in general (electrical energy production, natural gas, fuel trade).

Present in foreign portfolios are companies with strong foreign outlook and considerable foreign presence, such as Coca-Cola 3E, Elactor, Mitilineos (Metka), Follie Follie Group, Viohalko, Intralot, Sideron and Titan.