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Greece has moved from recession to depression

06 March 2013 / 22:03:44  GRReporter
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We cannot fix things that have been accumulating negative effects for years. There is no way to fix in a year errors and omissions made for decades. This applies not only to the level of salaries but also to other problems that exist in Greece today. We should not forget that there is no  other country that has implemented so many measures for reforms and restructuring over the last two or three years as Greece. What the state and enterprises should do is to make efforts in retraining the citizens; not to give diplomas without coverage but to invest time and effort in retraining.

Domestic investment can also contribute to improving the competitiveness. It is not necessary to import at a high price something innovative every time we need it if we can produce it ourselves. We should export our innovations abroad and actively seek new markets. It is a combination of policies and actions and if we start to implement them today, they will bear fruits later and they will be sustainable.

The salaries are falling, consumption is decreasing but the trend in prices is not the same. Greece remains a relatively expensive country. Why is that?

Inflation in 2013 is expected to be very close to zero. This, of course, is the result of the reduction in labour costs compared to last year. Prices are still high, indicating that we are largely dependent on imported products. The level of prices depends on external factors. Beyond the problems of external markets, there are still sectors and activities in the country that are not working on a market basis, which is further burdening the pricing.

While Greece is struggling to meet its obligations under the financial recovery programme, the external debt is growing. Will there be a new restructuring of the government debt?

The external debt is expected to become stable this year and the next and to begin to gradually decline from 2015 onwards. Its ratio is not expected to exceed 176% of GDP next year. The latest report of the International Monetary Fund does not exclude the possibility of the OSI (Official Sector Involvement), which does not mean that Brussels will accept a new haircut of the debt. However, the issue of restructuring is not excluded. The report of the International Monetary Fund mentions that there may be a further reduction in interest rates on supporting loans or a haircut of the bonds held by the official sector.

There is a serious concern in the financial circles that the programme for the recapitalization of banks and the support funds that they will receive will lead to nationalization. What is the future of Greek banks?

It is better to provide some support for the banks after the debt haircut than not to support the recapitalization. 2013 is the year of greatest uncertainty. It is not enough to complete the recapitalization. It is important to see how the bad loans will develop and whether their volume will increase or not. After the recapitalization process, a new assessment of the banks will follow and we cannot state now whether all banks will be able to meet the supervisors’ standards of capital adequacy after the recapitalization.

Tags: EconomyMarketsAnalysesGreeceCost of labourCompetition
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