Galery

1

Treatment and contraindications

The "Alternative government therapy" has two fatal contraindications. First, the cancellation of the bond replacement is accompanied by the cancellation of the credit program, which according to the agreement of July 21 will replace the current one. In the absence of a new program, the government will have to announce further measures to balance the budget. Public discontent and political crisis that will surely be provoked could destabilize the economy and destroy the fragile confidence in the banking system. Second, it is very likely the "generous" and hasty rescheduling of the Greek debt to maximize the crisis in the euro zone. In this case, the European Central Bank will not have the "luxury" to support for long the banking system of a Greece that is in political, economic and social shock. Therefore, the scenario of "controlled bankruptcy within the euro area" can quickly become a scenario of "controlled slip to the drachma"...

"PLAN B"

Greece as a "useful sacrifice"

There are more signs that in a strange way, Germany would not be against the "generous" Greek debt rescheduling, despite the dangers it brings to the area. The explanation of this strange position, according to certain sources, is that Mr. Schäuble’s notorious "alternative plan" (Plan B) is a fact and the unsuspecting Greece will not play a special role. There are more suspicions that Plan B is based on the acclaimed conclusion that the common currency can not survive long without the European Central Bank to abandon the deflationary policies imposed by Germany. It is unable to survive without getting round its strict statutes and without acting like a real central bank able to stabilize markets by buying government and bank bonds with new money, it itself prints.  To bypass the resistance of the German financial "hawks" against such a "forbidden option" the euro zone needs an "existential shock" as the "suspicious" say. Just as the shock of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 allowed the Congress to approve the Wall Street bailout by the State a Greek bankruptcy can be used to save the euro area.

The estimates of superior political and financial resources show that any other option in October outside the contract of July 21could be devastating for Greece, as it could make it a "useful sacrifice." Therefore, the fact that the government seems to consider "alternative scenarios" is extremely dangerous.