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Stock assessments of Greek banks and so-called expected values, given by global credit rating agencies and investment banks dropped significantly turning them into an easy prey for aggressive international investors. This is what Vassilis Rapanos, the president of the National Bank of Greece said in front of the parliament, where he took part in the discussions for the law on creating the Fiscal Stability Fund. As GRReporter has already informed you, the Fund will receive €10b financing by the International Monetary Fund and will take over banks who fail the stress tests which results will be available in September. Vassilis Rapanos reminded the parliament that the banking systems in all countries that adopt the IMF measures undergo dramatic changes. The Greek National Bank itself has taken advantage from this fact when in 2007 it purchased the Turkish Finansbank, when the Turkish economy was in the hands of the IMF.
    According to the Athens Stock Exchange today, as calculated by the Katimerini newspaper, an investor may buy four Greek banks - Attikis, Genikis, Aspis and Protobank for €500m. If a wealthy investor has at his/her disposal €10b, they could easily buy the Greek banking giants together - National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank and Eurobank EFG. However, recent reports by the investment bank JPMorgan warned investors not to rush buying Greek banks because they may not recover from the crisis.
    Analysts explain the reduced estimates of the Greek financial institutions with uncertainties regarding the state debt as well as the difficulties banks face in world markets. They say that assessments of Greek banks are so underestimated that no longer meet the realistic profit potential opportunities and banks will therefore begin attracting foreign capital in the near future. Historically, banks record profits cycle, which reflects the local economic cycle. They suffer when public finances are in crisis - according to analysts at Credit Suisse, in case a haircut of the Greek government debt takes place, Greece's largest commercial bank, National Bank of Greece’s balance will be left with a "capital gap" of €1.4b. At the same time if the Greek debt becomes more transparent, the first beneficiaries will be the shares of Greek banks. 
    Analysts, investors, media, and ordinary citizens who have trusted Greek banks their savings, are anticipating the semi-annual reports for 2010. First to announce its results will be Emboriki Bank, on July 30. The National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank will be next, on August 27 and Alpha Bank and will do so on August 31. Expectations are that the second half of 2010 will be even more difficult and defaults on debts will reach 10 percent of the banks’portfolio. To compare, during the first three months of 2010 the National Bank of Greece announced that unpayable credits have reached 7.1% of its portfolio; for Alpha Bank, this percentage was 6.6, for Eurobank EFG - 7,3 and for Piraeus Bank - 5.6 per cent. Defaults originate mostly from small and medium enterprises. 

   The first six months results are only a prelude to the presentation of the stress tests results. They will take place in August and the results will be published in September. This is when the “matchmaking”, or the compatibility among banks with regard to merger- which according to analysts is only a matter of time, will be possible after a careful, “between the lines” investigation. The so needed cash capital and liquidity have so far been provided solely by the European Central Bank. So far Greek banks have borrowed from the ECB €90b. According to the weekly Kefaleo the institution, managed by Jean-Claude Trichet, has announced that the largest amount that Greece can borrow is 120 billion, i. e. there are only 30 billion left, which will most likely be absorbed by the end of summer. And then what?
    What’s left are the international markets. Greek government will issue of 6-month test to the value of 1.6 billion euros. There is no doubt whether Greece will receive the loan, the question is what the interest rate will be. If it is around 5 per cent, the issue will be declared successful. Greek government discussed the possibility of issuing one-year bonds but waivered under expectations for high interest rates.