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The hard poker of Greece and its creditors

29 March 2015 / 20:03:00  GRReporter
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Marathon negotiations are being held in Brussels over the list of reforms to be introduced by the Greek government. According to reports, the list could not pass in its entirety. Big gaps are emerging between the Brussels Group parties, and they are trying to get them out of the way, while time is pressing Greece.

The Greek government is holding its session today to discuss amendments to the list. The Premier said the meeting will start at 7 PM in Parliament.

"We are going to discuss current issues; we stand firmly behind the prime minister and we are resolved to defend the dignity of our country," said the Health Minister, Panagiotis Kouroublis, before Mega TV.

Kouroublis added: "In Europe, they had better come to terms with the fact that however small our country, if the newly elected government has the will to stand for whatever needs to be stood for, we're going to do so, and you will see our country emerging as the winner." The minister emphasised that "if the Europeans opt for a breakup, they must shoulder the responsibility as well," and added that there is no Europe without Greece.

It should be pointed out that both Tsipras and Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis spoke about putting an end to the recessionary measures, that no salaries and pensions would be cut, and VAT would not increase.

Brussels circles have made noises about how difficult the negotiations are, while the Greek government maintains that the talks are running amidst a positive climate, despite some differences.

An example of the existing hurdles was the partners’ demand raised during the Brussels Group discussions that the Greek government increase the country’s retirement age and slash additional pensions by about 90%.

The red lines for the Greek government are social insurance, employment and wage and pension cuts – yet all those areas have eluded agreement so far. The government has dug its feet over the issue of another wage and pension reduction; it has shown intransigence over the trimming of additional pensions as well.

The government has not discussed any amendments in employment. It has explored collective agreements and is expected to propose a bill arranging the matter.

As far as social security is concerned, the government has been shy of any direct talk about raising the retirement age; it has, however, admitted that changes are necessary, but they must only follow a broad political and social dialogue.

VAT is another sticky issue, with technical teams demanding changes. As regards the single property tax, the government is still investigating the chances of replacing it with another tax, which will exempt first homes.

The parties are also talking about a fairer tax system, with a different allocation of burden, e.g. the highest incomes might be taxed at a rate of up to 48%.

The introduction of special taxes on alcohol, fuel and luxury goods (e.g. yachts) is fairly likely. Tax exemptions might also be reviewed, as well as the removal of bonuses in the civil service – with a few exceptions.

Athens looks favourably on a single salary rate in the civil service. It also explores the question of lumping up insurance funds.

Early retirement might be suspended. High-fat foods might be encumbered with a special tax.

VAT online payments are deemed crucial for boosting government revenues, hence some incentives for debit card use might reasonably be expected.Both parties have not ruled out privatisation. The government however has been insisting on a strategic role for the state in a new scheme; it also stands behind joint ventures with international partners.

A cash receipts lottery has been mooted as a means to stimulate individuals to demand receipts while shopping.

According to the latest reports, the creditors are not inclined to back down in terms of macroeconomic indicators: they insist that any additional budget spending must be set off by extra revenues.

Over the next few days, the talks with Greece will be focused on VAT, the single property tax and the social benefits system. The aim is to wrap up the discussion by the end of next week. But many believe the talks are likely to drag on beyond that.

The ultimate objective is to shift the discussions to the interstate level, i.e. to the EuroWorking Group, and thereafter to Eurogroup.

In a statement before To Vima, Yanis Varoufakis pledged that VAT would not be raised despite pressure to do so. He argued that changes in VAT collection, as well as expanding the tax base, should be expected by June.

According to EU sources cited by Ethnos, there is light at the end of the tunnel of negotiations. Releasing a tranche of €1 billion on 1 April was regarded as fairly possible. Disbursement of the remaining funds to Greece will be coupled with progress on the agreed reforms.

Reuters has reported pronouncements by European officials about the likelihood of an alternative currency being introduced in Greece.

Dimitris Mardas, Alternate Minister of Revenue, called these scenarios unfounded before the Financial Times. However, he evaded the question of the transfer of €448 million to the IMF in early April. "Whatever has to be paid will be paid on time. This means salaries, pensions and social security benefits."

How much does Greece owe?

€3.5 billion will have to leave the government coffers in April. €448 million to the IMF are falling due on 9 April, as well as another €200 million as interest. €1.5 billion will go into salaries and pensions, out of which 465 million are due in the first half of the month.

A rigid €1.1 billion is the spending for insurance funds and hospitals. Another 2.4 billion are payable on treasury bills: 1.4 billion on 14 April and 1 billion on 17 April.

Tags: Brussels Group negotiations a list of reforms salaries pensions VAT
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