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The problem in Greece is not governments but society

25 November 2011 / 15:11:19  GRReporter
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I think it is very difficult to say. I would be surprised if Greece is still in there. But I think this crisis has still a long way to play out. In five years time, we may not moved on that far, to be honest. We may be looking at that case before this is really resolved. I think, in an ideal world, it is probably five or six countries, maybe ten, that could really stick the pace with Germany. Many countries in the southern part may struggle, may have lost the pace in terms of maintaining the single currency. I think the point is that this is a choice that has to be really addressed by politicians. It has to be made clear. I think there is a risk that the Eurozone and the European Union could become inseparable. There is a genuine need to make it clear that the Eurozone and the European Union could sustain some kind of breakup of the Eurozone. If it was done in an orderly fashion, these countries should have choice. They should not be locked into a future they really do not want or cannot actually deliver. And in some point that may involve having a discussion with the electorate, saying where do you see your future life, do you see you country in the Eurozone in 15-20 years time or we could look at other options.

Do you see any new country joining the Eurozone?

I think it would be very brave for a country to look at that right now. I cannot see any country in the European Union looking to do that in the next five years, maybe ten years. But I think there are countries with ambitions to join the Eurozone. And I think for some countries it may make sense. If you are closely tight to an economy, which is in the Eurozone, this is something that could make sense. But I think the conditions have to be right. At the moment, there is clearly a huge crisis that no one really knows how it would be resolved. I think it would be very unwise if anyone wanted to agree to join a group that is going to be changing. So, if a country would like to join the Euro it will have to wait 10-15 years until it really sees how this crisis unfolds and what is done to resolve it. I think in the case of the United Kingdom, there is no chance Britain to join the Eurozone, certainly in my lifetime and possibly ever.

During the political crises both in Italy and in Greece, the Euro was very strong against both the British pound and the US dollar. How could you explain the fact that people still believe in the Euro although the Eurozone has this great problem?

The Euro is still one of the biggest currencies in the world and it is not like the UK and US’. They have their own problems. But at the same time, there are huge political problems in Greece and Italy. They are also facing huge economic problems because investors were dropping Greek and Italian bonds especially, which is driving economic problems. And we have Spanish bond deals kind of edging up and also there were suggestions that the next focus might be France. Although the currency may have still be held by investors, I think there are deep concerns about many of the countries within it. And I think those concerns are well found and correct because it is difficult to see how some of these countries in the long term can sustain that levels they have without being able to adjust monetary policy in a way that would help them possibly inflate it, which is what these countries have done in the past.

The European Central Bank is criticized quite a lot for its behaviour in the crisis because it does not behave as a bank but behaves as a ministry of finance of the Eurozone. How would you comment on the policy of the European Central Bank?

Well, the European Central Bank has been left with little options but to step in, if you like, because there has been constant delay in action by European leaders and the Eurozone. But I think the European Central Bank has got itself in a very difficult position that is effectively enacting fiscal policy rather than simply monetary policy tasks. And of course, that has huge political implications as well, because in countries like Germany, where the independence of the central bank is paramount and low inflation is one of the founding principles of the modern German state, seeing a central bank be so interventionist and purchasing government bonds has huge political difficulties. But on the other hand, the European Central Bank has been left with little choice, because it has been no other vehicle to step into the hole, which has been created. So, I think, in the long term, the European Central Bank is probably not going to be the answer. It cannot be the lender of loss, as some people would hope, because the Germans would not simply allow it. And this is a fact. So, it is very difficult to see how the European Central Bank can play that role in the long term.

I would like to get back to the words of Prime Minister David Cameron, who said that the European Union is out of touch and the crisis is a chance actually and an opportunity to re-fashion it. What kind of reforms does the European Union need from the point of view of Great Britain?

Tags: Eurozone crisisGreek economic crisisUnited KingdomOpen EuropeReforms
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