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The supervisory Troika is not strict enough with Greece

20 September 2011 / 21:09:10  GRReporter
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If they merge, there will be a new large bank in Bulgaria too. Their representations in our country are separate banks with separate licenses. If the merger takes place in Bulgaria too, I think the result will be a very good large and unique bank. There will be cost savings, some offices will close, but the bank will be much more resilient to crisis situations. I appreciate that such a move would be very good for the country's financial system.  

Do you see parallels between the situation in Bulgaria in 1997 and in Greece today? Do you think that Greece could learn from the Bulgarian experience in restructuring the economy?

In 1997, Bulgaria had to cut 58,000 public officials. It had to close, liquidate or sell 64 state enterprises, to carry out mass privatization at a rapid pace in order to meet budget needs. We had to sell a series of public companies for several months, because we had to attract foreign direct investment.

For Greece, it was said that privatization will take place or companies or even islands will be sold, but nothing actually happened. It could not happen without reforms and privatization. The deficits made over the years have to be offset and there should be destitution. Therefore, political will is necessary and the Greeks have to admit that no one can pay their bill.

In Bulgaria, we had to reduce pensions to $ 10 in 1997 during the financial rescue period and then indexed them to $ 35-36 by the end of the year. I know the levels in Greece are different and it is not necessary to fall to such low values, but this is the way. To minimize spending while the deficit becomes zero in order to begin to repay the foreign debt that currently is growing.  

This requires political will and the government must explain in detail to the public why these changes are necessary and what will be achieved through them. If the population is not convinced of the importance of the measures, there is no way to accomplish this reform. Protests and strikes will not lead to economic recovery. A comprehensive program for the recovery of the financial system and the economy is necessary, which has to be implanted firmly and have public support.

Do you think that if Greece announces suspension of foreign debt payments things will get better? What is the Bulgarian experience?

Bulgaria was in a peculiar state of bankruptcy twice. Once a moratorium on the foreign debt was declared in 1990, when we did not pay our obligations for several years until we get on our feet. The second time was in 1997 when we rescheduled the debt. All this was accompanied with a very serious structural reform. People consent is necessary to run this program.

In Bulgaria, the recovery program was supported with the full majority of the parliament and there was only one abstention. All political parties agreed with the action plan and it started with very high confidence. Unlike our experience, it seems that the recovery program in Greece has many opponents, which means that it is not well explained to the people. On the other hand, there may be some other alternatives that I am not aware of, but when it comes to recovery measures, the government should take care to clearly explain why they are necessary and what the ultimate goal is.

From May 2010, the supervisory mission, known as the Troika of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, visits Greece constantly. The three institutions are like a currency board in Greece. It grants funds following a political decision, although the rescue program is not observed.

Could you tell us what happened in Bulgaria when the currency board was introduced?

First, we in Bulgaria had to meet approximately 17 pre-conditions before the International Monetary Fund agreed to support us financially. Then followed 20 more structural and fiscal reforms, which required additional measures to be granted the aid in tranches.

Fulfilling our obligations brought the results. First, the 300% inflation rate at the time of introducing the currency board declined to zero and there was even deflation for a short period. The exchange rate of the BGN fell to 1500 German marks from 3000 German marks. The financial system calmed down and so did people.

From this perspective, I believe that the supervisory Troika in Greece is not strict enough. In Bulgaria, we had to accept the program first, to adopt the laws and begin to apply them before we were granted the support.

You say that Bulgaria should draw an action plan in the crisis. Is this proposal connected with the financial instability of Greece?

Last week we found that foreign direct investment in Bulgaria is 76% less than in the same period last year. When the house of your neighbour is burning, you must be prepared that the fire can cross the fence. The European Union has already discussed the amount of the fee in the liquidation fund in case of bankruptcies, and we still do not dare to talk publicly about what steps we should take to limit the impact of the debt crisis in Greece and other countries. When it is known that the Greek stake in the Bulgarian banking market is 30-35%, who will come to invest in the country? Therefore, we need to develop scenarios for action in different cases - for example, what would happen in Bulgaria, if a large Greek bank with branches in the country goes bankrupt? The plan should say what we should do on the Bulgarian side, so that we could minimize the negative effects.

Tags: EconomyMarketsGreeceBulgariaCrisisBanking sectorInstabilityKrasimir Angarski
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