Greece is experiencing perhaps its most dramatic period from the fall of the military junta in 1974 to the present day and its remaining in the euro zone is at stake. The government of the radical left has taken a course of sharp conflict with the European partners of Athens and the outcome of this policy will become clear in the coming days. At this critical moment for Greece, SYRIZA party newspaper Avgi published an article entitled "Grexit would be better than a third memorandum" in an unequivocal attempt to prepare the Greeks for the return of the drachma.
"The agreement of 20 February that was reached during the Eurogroup meeting was the best possible option (or at least the least bad one) among the actual alternatives available at the time to the Greek government. With this agreement, the government managed to avoid the death trap (through the suffocation of the banking system) that the international and domestic supporters of austerity had set for it. Moreover, for the first time since the crisis, one official diplomatic document contained the elements of an alternative logic to tackle the crisis, as opposed to the perceptions that were the basis of the memoranda. On the other hand, as the situation must not be painted in bright colours, the agreement of 20 February contained serious concessions from the Greek side, at least compared with the pre-election programme of SYRIZA (Independent Greeks are not against privatization).
Agreement that is not implemented
A month after the agreement was signed by Greece and the Eurogroup, the situation is as follows: the government is beginning to implement its programme (measures to address the humanitarian crisis, restore the state television ERT, settle arrears in the public sector), while the technical teams of the lenders are in Athens to obtain data on the actual state of the economy. The Greek government has violated no point of the agreement of 20 February but the other side, namely the Eurogroup, is not applying it. More precisely, different circles from the group have taken a number of actions and made omissions, thus totally suppressing it.
The suppression of the agreement on the part of extreme conservative circles in Europe has two manifestations. One is the continuous attempts for us to slip from the contents of this agreement to the memorandum and to the fifth evaluation of the performance of the anti-crisis programme, in addition to the continuous references to the words "memorandum" and "Troika" by various leading figures (headed by German Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schaeuble). More important is the attempt to put back on the negotiating table the policies which are outside the agreed framework and which are part of the measures adopted by the government of Samaras and Venizelos.
The main manifestation of suppression of the agreement, however, is blocking the financing of the Greek public sector. Almost a month after the agreement of 20 February not only are they not "opening the tap" of credit financing but the European Central Bank is not allowing even a small increase in the permitted limit for the issuance of bonds in order for Greece to be able to cover to some extent its financial requirements. In other words, if the banking system was at the risk of suffocation in February, now it is the public sector’s turn.
Ruthless dilemma
Having no inclination to conspiracy theories and keeping presence of mind, as appropriate when one proceeds to political assumptions, the current behaviour of the extreme conservative circles in Europe could lead to the following conclusion: by financial suffocation, they are trying to face the Greek government with the ruthless dilemma "a third memorandum or Grexit". I.e. they want to take things to that critical point when the government will have to obey, thus betraying the people's will in order for it to be able to cover the basic financial requirements of Greece and to stay in the euro zone.
Their behaviour, of course, is not dictated by any economic logic. The money required by Greece (several billion) is a drop in the ocean of the European economy. Moreover, the Greek budget has a stable primary surplus and the new government manages public finances in the right way.
The question is deeply political. The dominant forces of European conservatives want to politically crush Alexis Tsipras and SYRIZA to kill in the bud an alternative political example of pan-European coverage. They are striking blows against SYRIZA to finish Podemos and Sinn Fein.
Furthermore, the rapid rise of right-wing populism in Germany is driving the ruling coalition led by Angela Merkel to strengthen conservatism and mainly to a national "entrenchment". The Merkel-Schaeuble duo is acting much more like a German leadership and not as a dominant European power.
Tough choice
So far, the Greek government has demonstrated that its basic principle is respect for the will of people. For the first time we have a government the primary concern of which is protecting the rights of the majority rather than serving the interests of the minority. In addition, in those first weeks the government has shown that besides being loyal, it is also politically mature, as it has performed a lot of manoeuvres and created the necessary alliances. What the government is doing now is continuing to create alliances in order to break the deadlock and fail the plans of the firm supporters of austerity. It still has a chance to succeed.
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