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81 billion euro losses for the Athens Stock Exchange

26 December 2011 / 14:12:06  GRReporter
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Greek shares which "returned" in 1992, reported for the second consecutive year the world's lowest yield (-55%) with losses of 30 billion euro in 2011 and 81 euro billion in total for the two years of the memorandum.

At the end of 2011 capitalization on the Athens Stock Exchange yielded 26 billion euro, which is nearly 13% of the GDP. This is a result which refers to the early 90s, while during the "bubble" in 1999 it reached 180% of the GDP. Meanwhile capitalization is 3-4 times lower than the results of the developed markets.

Since the crisis erupted Greek shares have dropped by 78% and remain at the periphery. And faced with the risk of an uncontrolled bankruptcy and a possible return to the drachma the assessments can not be an investment criterion.

For most analysts, before 20th of March, i.e. before the refinancing of Greek bonds amounting to 14.4 billion euro, "open" fronts, which define the developments on the stock market, in the economy and perhaps within the country at a time when crisis management requires serious political interference, will have to be closed.

The situation on the stock exchange in 2012 will be determined by the approval of the super-tranche amounting to 89 billion by the Troika, the contract for PSI+, the conclusions of BlackRock about the banks and the need for their recapitalization (analysts estimated it at 40-52 billion euro), the depth of the recession, which was - 6 % in 2011 and total of -13% for the last four years, is further expected to range between -3.5% and 6% in 2012, and political events.

Uncertainty about the exchange of bonds after the withdrawal of the Spanish hedge fund Vega Asset Management from the PSI Coordination Committee, because some private lenders do not accept lower interest rates on new bonds, complicates the situation. This comes at a time when, according to estimates of the Goldman Sachs 35% of domestic devaluation as well as an adaptation period of 15 years to stabilize the purely international investment position of Greece are required.

2011 turned out to be the second worst year for the stock market for the last 20 years after 2008 (a decrease of 65.5 percent).

The decline in the stocks in 2011 has affected all the indices (with high, medium and low level of capitalization), while very few shares managed to escape from the "tsunami" of the collapse (nearly one out of eight), without however changing the overall picture, as most of them are characterized by high levels of concentration (very low free float).

The high volatility should also be noted, which for the general index exceeded 150%, and the maximum yield accounted for was 1747 points (in February) and the minimum - 650 points (in December).

The average daily value of transactions on the Athens Stock Exchange has shrunk significantly (36% compared to 2010, due to -32% in 2010 compared to 2009, and -48% in 2009 compared to 2008), which led to the closure or drastic reduction of costs in both investment consulting companies, and the relevant departments of banks.

By July, the main problem of the banks had been the liquidity, bankers noted, stressing that since then two events occurred - PSI with cutting bonds and the inspection made by BlackRock, which events turned the liquidity problem into a problem with capital adequacy.

Developments in the banking sector dragged also the other sectors except petroleum products, and formed a general environment of low reliability, within which the strong foundations of many other companies were completely ignored. Thus assessments lower than their internal value were formed by profitable companies, targeted primarily at export or companies carrying out investment programmeme primarily the energy sector or state monopolies such as water companies, ports and state lotteries, which are in the process of privatization.

 

 

Tags: Stock news Athens Stock Exchange losses PSI
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