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Alpha Bank: We are not looking for quick profit in Bulgaria

11 March 2010 / 12:03:03  GRReporter
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    - According to me this is very difficult. I read that your Prime Minister admits that the atmosphere in Bulgaria is not suitable at the moment and pointed to Greece as a factor that adversely affects the chances of Bulgaria to become part of the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) as a first step before the introduction of the Euro in 2013. I see that the Bulgarian Finance Minister is optimistic that the government will continue to support the country's accession to the eurozone. For us, it certainly is the best that can happen, because this is an uncertainty that exists. On the other hand, let us not delude ourselves that the eurozone is a panacea and it solves all problems. The important thing is to have a proper financial policy, which Bulgaria has right now, but the question is whether it will maintain it in the future. The time is not right. I do not think the ECB will look positively at the request of either country to enter the eurozone because the Euro is under attack right now. The fact that Bulgaria meets the criteria for membership is very positive and if it can keep the same good economic results, it has big chances to enter the eurozone when things improve in few years. What bothered Europe in the past were the big deficits, which were over 20% of GDP. This year, thanks to the crisis, the deficit fell to about 8% in 2009 and in 2010 it can fall even lower. Of course, deficits do not matter for a country in recession, such as Bulgaria. What matters is whether it will maintain the same level of deficits, once it develops with growth of 5-6 per cent, which we believe is the normal pace of development of a country like Bulgaria. I.e. there are still issues that worry the Europeans - how mature is the Bulgarian economy in order to enter the eurozone. Standing is also the question of linking the Bulgarian currency to the Euro, which has lasted for more than 10 years and needs to be recalculated. Look, when there is great economic growth, many investments, inflow of capital from abroad, many loans, cheap money, no one knows how the Bulgarian economy will work if the conditions change. And they have changed. Years ago, Bulgaria was running ahead very fast, now we are in crisis, we are trying to deal with it and there is recovery in Bulgaria. The question is whether the Bulgarian government can keep public finances under control. We are already seeing some trends there. While you had budget surplus of 3-4 percent in 2009, we had a deficit that may persist in 2010, but we might also have a balanced budget with a zero deficit. I.e. there is uncertainty whether the needs of the Bulgarian society, which is the poorest in Europe, can only be tackled by economic growth without creating budget deficits. You need better infrastructure, better hospitals, better schools, better public infrastructure. Except for infrastructure in tourist resorts. During the upcoming years I expect an increase of pressure on public finances in Bulgaria. 

    - If we speak more generally about the Greek economy, how do you assess the government's efforts to put order in the tax system, to change the social security system and to restrict squander in the public sector? 

Tags: Alpha Bank Bulgaria Greece economy Eurozone EU
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