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Black Rock will launch stress tests for 18 banks

13 August 2011 / 13:08:53  GRReporter
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An army of 250 employees of Black Rock arrived in Athens to "beat out" the credit portfolios of 18 banks based in Greece, within the survey which the international agency has undertaken on behalf of the National Bank of Greece. Black Rock will launch next week conference calls with the 18 Greek banks, which will be checked and tete a tete meetings will begin on August 29th. The procedure which was discussed yesterday during an informative meeting between representatives of Greek banks and the National Bank of Greece, provides:

1 The first Black Rock should provide explanations on the methodology which will be applied, the number and type of data that will be requested from each bank individually, so as the control can carried out. This first elaboration will be done by phone next week. On August 29th a series of meetings will start between the financial controllers of the agency and staff o the audited banks. A total of 18 banks will be screened as the main condition is that their headquarters is in Greece. That is banks such as Geniki Bank and Emporiki Bank, for example, will be audited but not Cyprus bank or Marfin bank.

2 The objective is the currently started study to be completed within three months, when Black Rock will forward the results to the National Bank of Greece, which in turn will have to take decisions on the next steps, taking into account a number of factors.

3 In the first group of banks that will be inspected are Ethniki, Alpha Bank, Piraeus Bank, Eurobank, Savings Bank, ATE and Emporiki Bank. The inspection will be conducted from 29th of August to 14th of September. The second group includes all the remaining banks and will be conducted from the 14th to the 29th of September.

In any case, the complaints of bankers from all this effort, the results of which can cause violent conversions in the domestic banking sector, are mainly concerned with the time, when this will be carried out. The data at a macroeconomic level are extremely variable and each variation is immediately reflected on the credit portfolio. For example, bankers say, the concerns regarding the credit portfolios will be different if bond rescheduling was completed and the decisions taken at the Summit of 21st of July were implemented, and they are likely to be favorable for refinancing, depreciation of assets constituting collateral on the credits and so on.

In turn, the National Bank of Greece responded that they must comply with clear time frames, resulting from the revised memorandum, noting that the final direction will be given by itself, taking into account the macroeconomic events. Any decision to increase the share capital will depend on the conclusions of Black Rock, on the losses that ultimately the Greek banks will suffer as a result from the rescheduling, but lso on the condition that banks have capital adequacy ratio of 10 percent from the beginning of  next year.

39 banks and funds take part in the rescheduling

"A progress is registered and it will not be long before more details are provided", said Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), in connection with the rescheduling of the Greek debt. In an interview with Dow Jones, he said that is not yet clear whether the participation of individuals will lag significantly from the original goal for the participation of 90%, indicating that 39 banks and investment funds have expressed their support for the program. He also assured that the possibility of extending the program is also being discussed so that it covers the period at least until 2024, provided that the final decision is to be taken by Greece. A senior EU official quoted by the agency, said the amount set by the bankers under the contract, reached nearly 65 billion euro. The aim is for the exchange to cover bonds worth 135 billion euros.

New "pruning" of the Greek bonds, which are headed towards rescheduling provides the report of Νomura.

The report states that taking this probability into account to the four different options available to individuals will have significant differences, however, the consequences will depend on the form of the new, second, the restructuring of the Greek debt.

The report said that if this scenario is confirmed, then there will be new losses or possible profits for banks that will be involved in the procedure for rescheduling currently promoted. It is also believed that there are investment tactics that can be applied in order to the benefit.

Naturally, according to Nomura, all investment opportunities are concentrated in bonds, which expire after a few years, eg. those of 2020 or 2024, if ultimately the period, which will cover the program ended now PSI is extended.

Tags: Black Rock stress tests National Bank of Greece bonds rescheduling
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