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On December 5, the International Court of Justice will rule on the claim of Macedonia against Greece. The court will give its opinion concerning the refusal of Athens to Macedonia's joining NATO in 2008.

Greek media comment that if the judgement is not in favour of the country, the interim coalition government of Lucas Papademos will have to tackle another one of the many "hot" problems in addition to the efforts aimed at Greece remaining in the Eurozone. A negative development for Athens will create problems for New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras too. Not only because of his historic responsibility on the name issue of Macedonia, but also because the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, Stavros Dimas, is deputy chairman of his party. Not least is the position of the far right wing of LAOS.  The party leader George Karatzaferis opposed in public the adoption of a composite name, containing the term "Macedonia".

In its essence, the Macedonian claim against Greece focuses on the charge of violation of the interim agreement between the two countries, arguing that Athens has exercised its veto against the accession of Macedonia to NATO with its temporary name Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

According to journalistic sources, the International Court of Justice has referred to the "logic of 50-50". Judges are expected to rule that Greece has violated the Interim Agreement. However, they will not stipulate that this will be the core of the future Greek policy on this issue. Sources familiar with the situation behind the scenes have warned that Greek diplomacy will have to fight to preserve the results achieved so far, because the balance is not turned in its favour. There are more than a few who are defining as "too optimistic" the view that judicial development will not affect the policy of negotiations for the name of Macedonia under the auspices of the United Nations.

Sources from The Hague say that the International Court of Justice is inclined to adopt the position of the Macedonian Prime Minister, Nikola Gruevski, that Greece has violated Article 11 of the Interim Agreement. It states that Greece should not obstruct the accession of Macedonia to international organizations under the name Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Diplomatic sources believe that if the Court confirmed this opinion, it would mean accepting the Macedonian position that the government of Costas Karamanlis has exercised a veto against the accession of Macedonia to NATO during the summit in Bucharest in April 2008.

In the case of such a decision, Athens' arguments that it was a unanimous decision of the Organization would collapse. Senior diplomats say that the use of the term "veto" by Greek political leadership, even in the period after the Summit, has created grounds for the arguments of Skopje. They point out that the then Greek Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis himself has used the term in his public statements.

However, the International Court of Justice intends to remain silent regarding the second claim of Macedonia, according to which the judgement should indicate that Greece would not be able to prevent its accession into Euro-Atlantic structures in the future. Under the current practice, this will mean denial of the Macedonian claim.

The "50-50" logic will not facilitate Athens, media comment. The judgement will have to be applied, it will not be just an opinion. It is expected that Macedonia will put the question of its application to the Security Council of the United Nations. Here lies the reason why some political and diplomatic factors in Greece had offered the government to file a counter claim, arguing that Macedonia has violated the clause of the Interim Agreement, which recommends refraining from actions that cause irredentism. The aim of these proposals was to gain time, comments To Vima newspaper.

The issue of filing a counter claim was discussed at a secret meeting at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on March 16 this year, i.e. days before the trial in The Hague. Experienced diplomats and close associates of then Prime Minister George Papandreou with long experience in dealing with this problem supported the position. The Foreign Minister at that time, Dimitris Droutsas, did not accept the proposal and rejected it.

Other commentators believe that Athens had to submit a claim for breach of the Interim Agreement on the part of Macedonia, even during the government of Costas Karamanlis. Similar proposals had been made in the summer of 2007. They were renewed again with no result, when, in a letter to Karamanlis, Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski raised the issue of the existence of "Slavic-Macedonian minority" in Greece.

The publication also states the time when the judgement of the International Court of Justice is expected. On December 5, there will be a meeting of the Council on Foreign Affairs of the European Union, which will discuss issues related to its expansion. Coincidentally or otherwise, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden arrives in Athens this very day. Three days later, on December 8-9, the foreign ministers of the member states of NATO will meet. It is not excluded that the question of Macedonia’s adoption be discussed at both meetings.

Experienced Greek diplomats argue that the greatest danger for the country lies in questioning the unanimous decision of the Bucharest Summit at NATO level. They say it is not excluded that countries such as Turkey or Slovenia put forward this matter during the meeting of foreign ministers in December. Therefore, the Greek Foreign Ministry has issued an order to adhere to the terminology established in Bucharest. Another objective of Athens is to clarify that the judicial dispute between Greece and Macedonia is only bilateral. In any case, Greece has to avoid the possibility of being isolated, according to the same sources.
 
At European level, the situation is considered to be more easily manageable, despite the position of Commissioner Stefan Fule, responsible for the European Union enlargement, who supports the position of keeping equal distance from Athens and Skopje. The Macedonian country has already sent letters to most of the Member States, requiring commencement of the negotiations for its accession to the European Union before solving the name issue. They refer from Skopje to the dispute between Slovenia and Croatia, when the negotiations on the issue were held in parallel with the negotiations for accessing the European Union.
 
Macedonian sources claim that Nikola Gruevski will use the judgement of the International Court of Justice to take an even harder position against Greece. His recent statements have demonstrated this and a few months ago, his cabinet minister suggested that Greece should leave the Eurozone.

Objective observers stress that the possible conviction of Greece for violation of the Interim Agreement will change the perceptions about the role of the International Court of Justice in the Greek-Turkish relations. If the first attempt to bring to court such matters proves traumatic, it would be quite reasonable to expect doubts to arise about its eventual judgement on defining the continental shelf with Turkey. "A whole generation of politicians, diplomats, and even journalists grew up with the idea that the submission of a claim to the International Court of Justice is the panacea for Greek-Turkish relations. But a possible loss for an issue, which is equivalent to the determination of the shelf, might have huge consequences," said a senior Greek diplomat.