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A derby between SYRIZA and New Democracy projected by all polls

29 August 2015 / 17:08:03  GRReporter
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The countdown to the elections has already started and polls are popping up on a daily basis.

They all look pretty much alike with their anticipation of a fierce battle between Syriza and New Democracy, although there are some that give a comfortable lead to Alexis Tsipras' party.

The polls predict that Panos Kamenos' Independent Greeks won't make it to parliament this time round. They also show a large number of undecided voters.

  • Metron Analysis for Parapolitika: A derby with just 1% margin

A derby between Syriza and New Democracy and an eight-party parliament without the Independent Greeks, but with Panagiotis Lafazanis is shown by the survey of Metron Analysis commissioned by Parapolitika daily. The poll shows a majority of those who want Greece to remain in the euro area, and another one of those rejecting the dilemma "for" or "against" the memorandum.


Asked whom they would vote for, respondents answered as follows:

  • SYRIZA - 22.2%
  • New Democracy - 21.2%
  • Golden Dawn - 6.4%
  • Potami - 5.1%
  • Communist Party - 4.5%
  • PASOK - 4.1%
  • Vassilis Leventis' Union of Centrists - 3.8%
  • Popular Unity - 3.1%

The Independent Greeks remain outside parliament with only 1.7% of the vote. 11.2% of respondents have yet to decide for whom they will vote.

Asked regardless of whom they will vote for, what they think the election outcome will be, respondents replied:

  • SYRIZA - 29%
  • New Democracy - 27.8%
  • Golden Dawn - 8.3%
  • Potami - 6.7%
  • Communist Party - 5.9%
  • PASOK - 5.4%
  • Union of Centrists - 4.9%
  • Popular Unity - 4.1%
  • Independent Greeks - 2.3%

If these forecasts turned into reality, SYRIZA would have received 129 seats in parliament, New Democracy - 75, Golden Dawn - 23, Potami - 18, the Communist Party - 16, PASOK - 15, the Union of Centrists - 13, and Popular Unity - 11.

At the same time, 79% say they want their country to remain in the Eurozone, while 17% prefer a return to the drachma.

73% believe that the "for" or "against" the memorandum dilemma doesn't make any sense, 18% define themselves as opponents of the memorandum while 6% support it.

55% of respondents believe that Alexis Tsipras did the right thing by signing the agreement while 40% said he made a mistake.

  • MRB for Agora: a small lead for SYRIZA

SYRIZA has a 2.2 points lead on New Democracy, according to an MRB survey for Agora daily.

Asked "Who do you think people will vote for?" respondents said:

  • SYRIZA - 29.6%
  • New Democracy - 27.4%
  • Golden Dawn - 7.5%
  • Potami - 6.7%
  • Communist Party - 5.7%
  • Union of Centrists - 5.7%
  • Popular Unity - 5.1%
  • PASOK - 4.7%
  • Independent Greeks - 2.8%

Asked "Which party will you vote for?", respondents replied:

  • SYRIZA: 24.6%
  • New Democracy: 22.8
  • Golden Dawn: 6.2%
  • Potami: 5.6%
  • Communist Party: 4.7%
  • Union of Centrists: 4.7%
  • Popular Unity: 4.2%
  • PASOK: 3.9%
  • Independent Greeks: 2.3%

Alexis Tsipras would make the best prime minister for 38.1% of respondents, followed by Evangelos Meimarakis with 31.7%. 27.6% liked neither of them for PM.

  • University of Macedonia for SKAI: the gap is narrowing

The gap between Syriza and New Democracy has narrowed to 3 points, according to the survey of the University of Macedonia for SKAI TV.


The poll shows that SYRIZA's support – which in June stood at 34.5% – is melting. Accordingly, the popularity of New Democracy, which in June attracted 16.5% of voters, has been gaining strength. This is how the votes are distributed now:

  • SYRIZA: 25%
  • New Democracy: 22%
  • Potami: 6%
  • Communist Party: 6%
  • Golden Dawn: 5.5%
  • Popular Unity: 5%.
  • PASOK: 4.5%
  • Union of Centrists: 4.5%.
  • Independent Greeks: 2% (staying outside parliament)

14% of respondents either failed to answer or were undecided.

The standing of political leaders

The most popular leader is Alexis Tsipras with 23%. Evangelos Meimarakis is at his heels with 22.5%. Third comes Stavros Theodorakis (Potami) with 19.5% and fourth – Fofi Gennimata (PASOK) with 16%. Although his party is likely to remain outside parliament, Panos Kamenos gathered 13.5% of the votes. Right after him ranks Dimitris Koutsoubas of the Communist Party (13%). Panagiotis Lafazanis got 10% while Golden Dawn's Nikos Michaloliakos gained 5% of approval.

66.5% of respondents think parliament speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou got it wrong. Her negative vote has been gaining strength since April, when it was 47.5%.

  • ProRata for Efimerida ton Sintakton: battle between Syriza and New Democracy

A 3.5 points lead of SYRIZA was forecast by the ProRata poll commissioned by Efimerida ton Sintakton (The Editors' Newspaper). However, the undecided voters got the highest percentage of 25.5% – vis-a-vis SYRIZA's 23%.


Respondents' preferences are allocated as follows:

  • SYRIZA: 23%
  • New Democracy: 19.5%
  • Popular Unity: 3.5%
  • Golden Dawn: 6.5%
  • Potami: 4%
  • Communist Party: 5%
  • PASOK: 4.5%
  • Union of Centrists 3%
  • Independent Greeks: 2%

Over 50% of respondents believe that the new agreement with the creditors is not a good deal.

  • Bridging Europe: An 8.5% lead for SYRIZA

An 8.5 points lead of SYRIZA over New Democracy is shown by the poll of the international think-tank Bridging Europe. The undecided voters came up as a kind of "second party".


Here is the vote distribution:

  • SYRIZA: 26.8%
  • New Democracy: 18.3%
  • Potami: 6.2%
  • Popular Unity: 6.1%
  • Golden Dawn 5.9%
  • Communist Party 5.8%.
  • Among those staying outside are:
  • PASOK: 2.9%
  • Independent Greeks: 2.4%
  • Union of Centrists: 2.6%.

19.8% said they had not yet made up their mind.

Respondents are split in their opinion of the early election. 43% oppose it while 39% think it is okay. The majority of citizens (62%) believe that the ballot will usher in a coalition government. Asked "In the current circumstances, which do you prefer: Greece leaving the Eurozone or staying in it?", 45% clung to the euro, while 34% preferred leaving the Eurozone.

The survey was carried out between the 24th and 26th of August and involved 1,015 people.

  • Marc for Alpha: a margin of 2.1%

A 2.1% lead for SYRIZA is shown by the telephone survey of Marc for AlphaTV, conducted between the 25th and 28th of August among 1,006 households.

According to the survey, votes were distributed as follows:

  • SYRIZA - 25.3%
  • New Democracy - 23.2%
  • Potami - 5.8%
  • Golden Dawn - 5.5%
  • PASOK - 4,4%
  • Communist Party - 4.2%
  • Popular Unity - 3.8%
  • Union of Centrists - 3.8%
  • Independent Greeks - 3%.

18.8% either chose not to reply or were still undecided.

60.3% of respondents said that SYRIZA would win the elections, while 19.4% gave the victory to New Democracy.

In terms of popularity, Alexis Tsipras got 47.8% of positive or lukewarm feedback and 50.9% negative or lukewarm-negative. 44.1% of respondents were either positive or lukewarm towards New Democracy president Evangelos Meimarakis while 49.1% were either negative or lukewarm-negative.

Only 20.9% of positive response was gained by parliament speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou, while her detractors added up to 76.6%.

When asked what kind of government they preferred, 33.7% opted for a national unity government, 17.2% wanted a coalition government led by SYRIZA, and 17.6% chose a coalition with New Democracy as the key player.

Tags: polls SYRIZA New Democracy lead early elections popularity
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