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Anastasia Balezdrova

The picture of destruction, the hundreds of victims and the people searched by rescue teams under the ruins after the earthquake of 7.2 on the Richter scale in eastern Turkey awakened painful memories in the minds of the Greeks. The strong earthquake of magnitude of 5.9 that shook Athens in 1999 and killed 143 people, left thousands of people without homes and caused enormous damage happened exactly after a powerful earthquake in western Turkey.
 
GRReporter contacted the lecturer in geophysics at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Konstantinos Papazahos who explained why the earthquake in the region of the Van Lake and the subsequent aftershocks do not predict seismic events in Greece. "The earthquake in Athens in 1999 was weaker than that in Turkey last Saturday. In no case can we make such an association. According to statistical data and personal analysis, the earthquakes that occur in Anatolia, near the Aegean Sea, and the Izmit earthquake in 1999 have a direct impact on the territory of Greece. Specifically, we are talking about earthquakes caused by the northern part of the Aegean Sea and its south part later.

The earthquake in Turkey was registered in the eastern Anatolian plate and in particular, in its northeastern part, which is after its end. The area is at a very great distance from the coast of Greece and there is no possibility this earthquake to have serious, direct and even indirect influence on the seismicity of the Greek territory. "

According to the specialist, it is not possible to predict such strong earthquakes, although sometimes there are signs thereof. "In cases of such strong earthquakes, we could talk about some signs. For this region, we know that in most cases, there is a kind of a "genetic" connection, i.e. it is possible to assess how shocks that occur in one place can cause damage to a nearby location. But to be realistic for the particular area where the earthquake happened, there were no signs. This is because in the region of the Van Lake, there was a devastating earthquake not so long ago, in 1976. Therefore, there was not a single serious indication that a long period without shakes in the region has passed."

Konstantinos Papazahos said that Greece is a place of high seismicity, where hundreds of weak or strong earthquakes are registered every year. "Seismicity is not variable. We cannot say that it decreases or increases over time. There may be times when it seems we have the feeling that it has changed, but actually, it is more a matter of our perception and ability to perceive things rather than a fact. Therefore, there is nothing more or less embarrassing in Greece now. Here we have an average annual magnitude of 6 to 6.3 on the Richter scale. If there is not such an earthquake in one year, it happens the next or the year after the next, or they happen one after another in a year. There were years in which there were strong and even small quakes of serious consequences as those in Arnea on the Khalkidhiki peninsula in 1995, in Kozani and Egio. So, we can say that there are years when more and stronger earthquakes happen and others, when they are weaker.

In such a difficult economic period for the country, we could only wish a calm period of seismic perspective. Because if we realize the economic consequences that some recent earthquakes have had, as the ones in Japan or in Athens in 1999, we see, that Greece will hardly bear such a heavy economic blow."

Despite the poor financial situation of the country, in a telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu, the Greek Foreign Minister Stavros Lambrinidis expressed the readiness of the Greek Ministry for Citizens Protection to provide for any kind of assistance to the Turkish authorities. A while ago, the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tagip Erdogan said that Turkey is able to cope with the disastrous consequences of the earthquake alone and thanked all who had offered help.