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A true battle is expected this year in relation to the price of lamb as breeders are demanding a minimum of 1 euro/kg higher prices compared to last year. The cause is the 40% reduction in production, mainly due to various animal diseases (bluetongue) as well as to the increased exports because of the early Catholic Easter. As of today, the producer price is 4.90 euro/kg.

To maintain consumption, supermarket chains in turn are ready to offer promotions of lamb and goat and to sell them at prices slightly higher than 6 euro/kg and 7 euro/kg respectively, resulting in suffering losses in the order of 20-25%.

Traditional trade, however, is less flexible. An indicator of the prices that will ultimately be set in butcher shops will be the result of agreements between breeders, retailers and owners of butcher shops, which will be reached at the market in Drama tomorrow. In view of the fact that breeders are in a good position this year, it is considered that, with the exception of supermarkets, the selling price of lamb will be at least 1-1.5 euro/kg higher compared to last year.

Breeders

According to sources, the contracts with large supermarket chains are almost completed and the five biggest chains have "nailed" the price and it is 0.5 euro/kg higher than last year when the price of lamb was about 5 euro/kg due to oversupply and when manufacturers sold at a lower price to avoid stocks of unsold goods.

Greek producers have apparently achieved better contracts with Italy and Germany, in view of the fact that exports began earlier because the Catholic Easter is one week before the Orthodox one.

As for the loss of animals due to bluetongue disease, it is believed that it is in the range of almost 40%.

Commenting on the issue, head of the Greek breeders union Dimitris Kambouris stresses, "The cost of cattle breeding is constantly increasing as if the animal diseases (e.g. bluetongue and measles) that destroy them are not enough. We do not want consumers to bear the full burden; we just want to ultimately make it clear that not only we should work at a loss. Retailers and owners of butcher shops must shrink their profit margins and everyone will assume the relevant part of the responsibility in this way." At the same time, Dimitris Kambouris urged consumers to beware of possible "tricks" and of unfair advertising.

It should be noted that the quantities of imported meat, mainly from the Balkan countries, which would eventually have to cover the shortage in the market, would influence prices as well.

Price increase

The first signs of price increases are coming from the central Athens market, where based on the data of Monday, 30 March, wholesale prices of lamb were in the range 6.5-7 euro/kg, the most common price being 6.80 euro/kg. Respectively, the prices of goat were in the order of 6.80-7.20 euro/kg, the most frequent price being 7 euro/kg. By comparison, last year at this time, the prices of lamb were in the range of 5-5.60 euro/kg and in 2013 of 4.5-5 euro/kg. Prices of imported lamb are high as well, namely 6.20-6.40 euro/kg for lamb imported from Romania and 6.60-6.80 euro/kg for the imports from Macedonia.

Decline in local production

According to head and CEO of the central Athens market Panagiotis Stamboulidis, the price increase is due to the producers who last year reported significant losses because of bluetongue disease. Consequently, local production has shrunk, influencing this year’s prices. According to him, the end price will be 1 euro/kg higher than last year. Asked whether a shortage is possible, Panagiotis Stamboulidis replies that no problems will arise in the market.

Attempt to keep supermarket prices unchanged

As indicated by sources for the newspaper Naftemporiki, the big chains are preparing for a serious collision with regard to lamb prices, as their aim is to keep them at last year's levels, namely slightly higher than 6 euro/kg for lamb and slightly over 7 euro/kg for goat.

According to industry representatives, keeping lamb prices at these levels means losses of at least 1-1.5 euro/kg for the chains. As senior officials from the industry indicate, "the fact that this year Easter is early in April, combined with the general uncertainty regarding the crucial negotiations with the creditors, implies a possible low consumption during the holidays."

‘Goods-baits’

In this regard, the strategies of supermarket chains are focusing on ‘goods-baits’, such as lamb, and on offering various promotions throughout the Holy Week, not only for the main goods in the Easter basket, but also for discount coupons.

The main objective is to maintain not only the volumes but also customer loyalty, as in that period consumers frequently visit more than one shop.

The Research Institute of Retail Consumer Goods gives as an example the fact that last year the average consumer basket for Easter cost about 30 euro and the price of locally produced fresh lamb was around 5.96 euro/kg and of goat about 6.73 euro/kg.