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For Fitch agency the 50 percent cut equals bankruptcy

30 October 2011 / 09:10:21  GRReporter
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The planned 50 percent cut of the Greek debt is equal to bankruptcy, said in its message the international rating agency Fitch Ratings.

Given that the nominal reduction of 50 percent in the exchange of bonds is adopted, then the Agency will be consider it as bankruptcy (default event), according to its criteria.

The message stresses that this should not be confused with a "credit event" and the activation of insurance against bankruptcy (the so-called Credit Default Swaps - CDS).

The decision of the International Association for swaps and derivatives (International Swaps and Derivatives Association - ISDA) of whether the exchange of bonds is a credit event or not, is not associated with the assessments of the rating agencies.

According to Fitch, the contract will lead to a temporary bankruptcy, as expected also after the conversion of bonds, and the rating of Greece will be downgraded to "B" level or lower, depending on the participation of private bondholders.

Currently, according to Fitch the rating of Greece is “CCC”

In July, commenting on the agreement to reduce by 21 percent of the debt, held by private investors, Fitch indicated that it would put Greece in the regime of "limited bankruptcy” (restricted default).

According to estimates of Fitch, the conversion of the bond debt will reach 142 percent of GDP in 2013 and in order for it to decline to 120 percent of GDP by 2020 the agency estimated that the percentage participation of private investors should reach 85 percent for bonds worth 205 billion Euros.

Greece will continue to have significant debt even after the 50 percent “cut” and further problems may be created by the prospects for weak growth and the willingness of the country to implement reforms.

As noted by Fitch, one of the main reasons why the 50 percent debt “cut” will not lead to the corresponding reduction in the percentage of Greek government debt, is the fact that official creditors (eurozone countries, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund) hold 30 percent of the debt and they are not expected to participate in the contract.

As to the contract signed on October 26 experts from the agency say that it is "a necessary step to ensure that public finances of Greece will go out into a stable orbit."

At European level the agency considers that the contract represents a positive step for the financial-credit stability in the eurozone and it also believes that the key elements of the contract are intended to neutralize the underlying causes of problems that led to worsening of the crisis.

Also, the agency stressed that it is very important that the European Central Bank continues to buy bonds on the secondary market and is ready to act as the ultimate source of credit for countries that are solvent but have liquidity problems.

Meanwhile, six out of every ten Greeks comment negatively regarding the contract signed in Brussels for the debt cut and the new loan agreement. This becomes clear from survey done by pollster ΚΑRΑ Research.

58.9 percent of respondents evaluated negatively the decision made on October 27 and they believe that people will be asked to pay a high price without guaranteed results. More specifically, 44 percent of respondents negatively assessed the results of the summit, and 14.9 percent - rather negative, against 12.6 percent who consider the developments as positive, and 23.1 percent - as "rather positive.” At the same time the majority of voters want the establishment of a government of national salvation, but did not specify the persons who could enter in it.

Citizens send a clear message to the political system with their answer to the question of which party they would vote for today. According to results from the study done by ΚΑRΑ Research, 22.2 percent would vote for New Democracy, 14.7 percent for PASOK, 9.1 percent for the Communist Party KKE, 6.3 percent for far right LAOS, 5.1 percent for the left coalition SYRIZA, 4.2 percent for the Democratic Left, 3.4 percent for Ecologists-Greens, 2.6 percent for the Democratic Union of Dora Bakoyannis and 1.8 percent for the Panhellenic movement of the people.

Tags: Greece economy crisis debt cut Fitch Rating Agency poll study
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