Galery

1

Victoria Mindova

By the end of the century, climate change and global warming would change the Greek climate to such an extent that a significant drop in tourism is expected. Over 1000 km from the Greek seashore is threatened by subsidence, and the average increase in winds in the region is expected to reach 10%. The air temperature is expected to increase by between 3° to 4.5° C, and summer fires would contribute significantly to the reduction of forest areas in the country and the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Rainfall in western Greece would be reduced by about 30% by 2100 and by 20% in the eastern part. The need for air conditioners and other methods of cooling of enclosed spaces during summer would increase by 40 days, which would lead to additional energy consumption. The only good news in the general apocalyptic picture of global warming is that winter heating season would decrease by a month and a half.

These are some of the conclusions of Christos Zerefos, who is the chairman of the scientific team tasked with a detailed study on the implications of climate change over the Greek society and economy. Christos Zerefos presented the study on "Natural, economic and social consequences of climate change in Greece," which was commissioned by the Bank of Greece. "The study is the first complete analysis of the consequences of climate change on Greece," said the governor of the Bank of Greece Georgios Provopoulos and explained: "In particular, the cost of climate change on the economy, the cost of the measures to adapt to these climate changes and the implementation a new type of economy that produces less harmful emissions into the atmosphere within the global attempt to reduce the effects of climate change."

Christos Zerefos presented three scenarios of development, describing what would be the consequences for the Greek economy, if the governments today and tomorrow take or do not take measures to absorb the challenges of climate change. The first scenario envisages that the Greek government would not take any initiative in the green economy. And the GDP of the Greek economy would drop by 2% each year until 2050, and then it would start to decline by about 6% annually by 2100. The main reason for this is that the country would have significant increase in electricity demand and a sharp drop of the tourist flow, which is crucial for the Greek economy. The lack of any actions concerning the climate change and the prevention of its consequences would cost Greece about 701 billion euros by 2100, including the fixed values from 2008.
 
The second scenario envisages that Greece would fulfill all the obligations under the Kyoto Protocol to limit the emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere and the average global temperature not to rise by 2° C. In this case, the cost of climate change for the Greeks would reach around 436 billion euros after 90 years. This significantly reduces the cost of implementation of climate change and is 40% less than the cost of inaction, experts stress. The third scenario envisages serious reform of the priorities in the economy so as to create measures and policies for implementation of climate change. This scenario does not provide incomplete neutralization of climate change but the maximum reduction of its consequences. In this case, the reduction of the GDP by 2050 would be 2.3%, and then it would begin to fall by 3.7% by 2100. Total loss for the Greek economy in the next 90 years due to the changes in global warming would cost around 577 billion euros, including the costs of economic reforms in the country.