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GRReporter presents the views of Thodoris Georgakopoulos, published in yesterday's Kathimerini.

I have good news and bad news.

The bad news first: If the negotiations stop short of an agreement and the third memorandum is not signed, if SYRIZA fails to address their problems, and on top of all this, if we fail to implement the measures of the memorandum, our goose is cooked. Grexit, this dirty word, a taboo until a short while ago (shoo, what are you talking about, no way, chances are less than one in a million!), is now plonked on the table, it might become a reality, and an excruciating one too.

The good news: If we really crash out of the Eurozone, we will be the best country in the third world. For a number of reasons.

Let's look into them one by one.

A few days ago, the Ernst & Young consultants published a report describing the Greek economy after exiting the euro. The report's scenario features a well-coordinated, well-organised transition to a new currency with the help and support of the creditors and the EU. This is actually the Schaeuble plan about how Greece could abandon the euro in the least painful way. This scenario has no connection with the hacking of tax numbers or the heroic task forces of Varoufakis and LaLa (Lafazanis and Lapavitsas). A makeshift, "disorderly" default, according to Ernst & Young would lead to such dramatic events as no economist could anticipate or describe.

But the 'good' scenario of a coordinated exit "would saddle households and business companies with a very high cost, thus leaving the country geopolitically isolated." In particular:

GDP will shrink by 15 to 20%, i.e. roughly the GDP loss of Iraq between 1986 and 1995. Or almost as much as the Greek GDP shrunk over the past five years. We will see this kind of drop within one year alone. Moreover, the debt will neither be 'deleted' nor reduced significantly, even if creditors agreed on restructuring it. Since GDP would collapse, even "if there was agreement for a “haircut” of 50% of the debt, then the debt would remain at 130% of GDP. This would reduce the manoeuvrability of the government, thus excluding the possibility of fiscal loosening." The implication is we are getting rid neither of the memoranda nor of austerity. Given that no other loans will be extended, we will have to "either raise taxes or further cut costs." To put it bluntly, austerity forever. In parallel, the economy will collapse. Prices of goods and services will rise, household purchasing power will decline steeply, and those mostly affected will be the people of medium and low incomes. Imports will collapse by 30% during the first three years, investments will dwindle by 30% during the first two years. The new currency will immediately depreciate by 50%, inflation will rise sharply and will exceed 10%, unemployment will hover beyond 30%. Annual GDP per capita will fall to €11,000, i.e. On a par with countries such as Jordan, Peru and Macedonia. Greece will become a much smaller and much poorer country. And this is still the good scenario.

As we all understand, we haven't shaken off this kind of fate. On the contrary. We haven't shaken off even an ugly, YOLO-type bankruptcy, the one day-dreamed by Varoufakis and LaLa. The current government is trying to come to terms with the shock from the sudden collision with reality. It looks utterly unable to negotiate a third memorandum, let alone implement it. Even if we have an agreement by the end of August, no one knows how many private companies will reopen in September, how steeply unemployment will rise, how long uncertainty will last, when SYRIZA will hold elections, and how it might outlive its in-house bickering. And all this comes at a time when the country's finances are shakier than they ever have been in the last five years.

At this stage, I would bet my money that 2016 will see Greece as a Eurozone member.

But here I come to the optimistic slant of the story.

If Greece experiences the tragedy of a Grexit, it will probably be the first country in world history to make the big jump from the first to the third world at such short notice. It will be the best, most advanced and most powerful country in the third world. This dawned on me at Victoria Square just recently.

Just like the islands and Athens, other South European countries have been inundated with an unprecedented number of forlorn refugees during this dramatic summer. It seems to us, the citizens of host countries, that all of them are the same, wherever they come from. Not so, though. Provenance is of great significance for the refugees' situation and prospects. As I was told by someone from the Afghani refugee community, the big hype around the refugees from Syria is unfair. "What problems have they got?," he said. "They've only been at war for five years." Such an attitude may sound weird and callous enough. But it does make sense.

"The Syrians are educated," said the man. "They can write, some know English and have families and friends. Our people (the Afghanis) have nothing. They are scattered. We've been at war for 40 years now. Those who come as refugees, never learnt to read and write. Their families are scattered. They come over here or elsewhere, and don't know anyone. They don't even know how to sign their names."

This is important stuff. Until 5 years ago, Syria was a rigid, but culturally and socially developed country, with a level of education matching that of Lebanon, and much higher than that of Yemen or Egypt, for example. Just as they were better armed to meet the challenges of the civil war, the Syrians are better armed to deal with the hardships of refugee life. One only needs a stroll from Victoria to Omonia and a few chats with people to feel the difference.