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Anastasia Balezdrova

Greece exiting the euro zone will be the new Asia Minor catastrophe

 Anastasia Balezdrova

Two weeks after the political turmoil caused by George Papandreou’s decision to hold a referendum and the resulting new transitional government of Lucas Papademos, the Greeks are already starting to recover. Although the polls conducted show that 73% of the people have a positive attitude towards Lucas Papademos and their expectations are high, a great number of Greek citizens show distrust towards the new cabinet as its composition has remained almost unchanged. Some believe that Lucas Papademos is the man able to lead Greece out of the constantly deepening crisis. Others think that he is the tool for imposing even more severe economic measures, while a third group complain that the cabinet involves representatives of the far-right party LAOS.

GRReporter has sought the opinion of Professor of Political Sciences Athanasios Diamandopoulos to explain the Greek political system and the public response after the government in the country has been changed.

Mr. Diamandopoulos, how would you define the new government of Greece?

It is the expression of a small glimmer of hope after the country has long attempted to live outside reality or its burden. The hope is related to the fact that this cabinet was imposed against the will of the political leadership from the new standpoint of the press, when things reached their crucial point. And because, as I say, the country has felt the wings of death, the press has begun to use a voice different from the usual voice of irresistible demagogy and simple solutions. It has started to speak in a way closer to the actual data in this country and its voice has echoed in society. A public pressure has been created, expressed by parts of the parliamentary groups of the two major parties. This is also something positive: For the first time, what I would call an equivalent of stupidity and stupid alignment with each paranoid or opportunistic position of party leaders has been broken. We have seen how the political system, even based on the self-preservation instinct or on the sense of responsibility, has responded to unreason.
 

Now, however, I fear that the cabinet has already become the subject of attacks and will meet strong resistance even in terms of its composition, which is the result of balances. It is also burdened with party influences and vocal counterattack by old-party and populist elements from both parties, while the ministers selected by the prime ministers are not many. To all this, we may add the position of that part of the press which is populist and is killing Greece and which has begun writing that this is a government of murderers, officials of the European Union, etc.

I.e. all the forces of darkness and reaction have united against the first glimmer of hope that has managed to arise from this political system in so many years now.

Do you believe that all these responses could prevent the government from fulfilling the purposes for which it has been formed?

I fear this, because we should be aware that these responses are related to the internal pole of difficulties. There are also external difficulties accumulating. The most important among them is that European public opinion does not support Greece’s staying in the euro area. Even those who supported this trend are much fewer now. Their main concern was not to send to international financial markets the message that the euro is a weak currency, or that any member state of the euro area could look outside it with all the consequences that this act might have. Now, even after the discussion that took place and regardless of whether Greece will remain in the euro area, which I do not think is particularly possible, the bad perception of the euro as a currency, which may become weaker due to the exit of a member state, is already a fact. Therefore, those who support the country remaining in the euro receive the reply, "What is the point of supporting  them and giving them money, after the negative act against the euro has already been committed." The weakened position of Greece concerning its remaining in the euro area in combination with all the forces of selfishness and irresponsibility that are weakening the cabinet from the inside, have put the government between two millstones and I am not optimistic about its ability to respond. Moreover, with this composition that is more a bad synthesis of worn-out elements of the political system than an introduction of something new and pure.

According to some commentators, the formation of the new government is unlikely to be able to limit the social protests. What is your opinion?

This is not known, but probably it will become clearer in the coming days and months during the anniversaries of the events in the Athens Polytechnic on November 17 and the murder of Alexandros Grigoropoulos in December. I would like to believe that the "wings of death" which Greek society has felt so close would have made at least some parts of it look at the difficulties with more restraint, caution and responsibility. And this, despite the fact that increasingly large segments of Greek society are suffering from the inability to meet some basic needs, which have been taken for granted in recent decades of prosperity. There are deprivation and discomfort, but we will see in practice if there is forbearance with them. However, the fact is that the number of followers of the irresponsible Left parties has increased due to their demagogic opposition to any substantive proposal. This support shows precisely the limits of public forbearance, which along with the political situation, does not give ground to positive thoughts and expectations.

Today, the New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras has told the deputies from his party that this is an interim cabinet and that there will be early elections on February 19. Do you think this expectation is realistic?

I think it is very likely that early elections will take place because the government is under pressure from all sides. On the other hand, if polls were conducted to highlight the need for this government to continue to rule and express social trust in Lucas Papademos and his efforts, then no force would be able to prevent this government from extending its term and resolving the problems better than any party government. This is true for Mr. Samaras, who has proved to be unreliable, since within a few days, he has changed his position from "no to everything and immediate elections" to the incredible "I accept any prime minister." Even more incredible in my opinion was that he approved the proposed Filippos Petsalnikos to become prime minister, which was the most irresponsible and criminal act of all. I could describe the proposal for a referendum as George Papandreou’s naivety. But Filippos Petsalnikos’ candidacy, i.e. the return to the person, who had announced such a referendum and caused seismic tremors in the Greek society and political system, has revealed one final attempt by Papandreou to preserve the last crumbs of power. Samaras, however, has demonstrated even greater irresponsibility because he does not have Papandreou’s alibi - that because of his obsession, he had not understood the danger of the referendum.

By coincidence, about a week ago, a book of mine, which I had written because I had thought and felt that the Greek government would try to resolve the impasse through a referendum, was published. The title is "Referendum - authentic expression or violent manipulation of popular will." In the book, I have tried to describe all the dangers and side effects that an ill-judged referendum could cause if certain conditions were missing, none of which were present in this case. By approving Filippos Petsalnikos, Antonis Samaras has actually excused and showed understanding of the proposal to hold a referendum, which has been the most disastrous proposal in Greek political life of the recent decades.

In your opinion, what would happen to the Greek political system in the future?

If we had in stock pure politicians like Marshal Papagos, de Gaulle or anyone else, I am sure that even their mere appearance would sweep away the bodies of the old parties, which are worn-out and devoid of ideology, suggestions, trust and programmes. Unfortunately, the absence of visible alternatives will prolong their life. In all cases, their main features: single-party governments, a permanent connection between the two parties, a significant proportion of voters and small displacements of voters are already gone. We see that a large percentage of voters have joined other political forces. Just remember that in 2007, Kostas Karamanlis won the elections with 42% and in 2009, he lost them with 33%. Papandreou did win in 2009 with 44.5% and now, social polls are reporting rates much lower than 20%. All this shows a very different political system from what we have known so far. Where will we get? This depends on factors that no one is able to predict. All that is certain is that the old system would disintegrate gradually, at least for some time, before the new one emerges. All this would happen provided that the country is not faced with a major catastrophe such as returning to the drachma. Then, of course, all parties involved in the ruling of the country up to that time will be swept away as the culprits of this major catastrophe.