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Greece got away with a selective default

22 July 2011 / 19:07:18  GRReporter
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Greece got away and the restructuring of part of the foreign debt did not cause a credit event, announced the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA). According to the rules following which international financial markets and credit rating agencies operate in order to reach the level of "bankruptcy" the country needs to change the terms of debt repayment to all holders of Greek government bonds.

 This is not the case of Greece, which included the participation of private investors and only partly and as a recommendation the insurance market in the country's external financing remains disabled.

"Obviously, this is a voluntary exchange, and I do not see why it should cause a credit event. There is nothing in it that would obliges all participants in the foreign debt," said David Greene, who is general counsel to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) as quoted by Reuters. The program for participation of the private sector in the second Greek rescue package relies on voluntary exchange by the banks of existing Greek government bonds against the new securities that provide a combination of four new instruments.

Institute of International Finance (IIF) said that the exchange of bonds will help to reduce the Greek foreign debt by 13.5 billion euros and 90 percent of the local and foreign holders of Greek bonds are expected to be attracted in the process. They will bear about 21% loss of the investments in the Greek lending, and the deadline for payment of the new bonds will be increased to 30 years. According to some observers this scenario is preferable to the alternative of not ever getting their money.

Despite the soft landing from the summit, the decisions taken there can not lead to any consequences. First raised their voices the financial analysts from the credit rating agency Fitch, who said that now a reduction of the credit rating of Greece will follow to the level "RD-partial bankruptcy" (restricted default). Today, Greece is still with a CCC credit rating, which in the perception of Fitch of the meaning of credit rating means "Bankruptcy is a real possibility."

Prospectives for reduction by three levels to RD are defined as real, because partial bankruptcy is characterized by selective non-payment of a part of  the debt or a separate currency of the debt. Just as it is in the case of Greece. Experts from Fitch estimated that the expansion of the influence of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) is an important step in strengthening the economic situation of the eurozone countries. It currently has 440 billion euros that will be used not only in the case of Greece, but also in the cases of other European countries in misfortune.

At the same time the second rescue package caused mixed feelings in the international community. The German edition of Financial Times described the settlement of the Greek debt crisis as a transition to the intensive care unit. Finance Minister of Greece Evangelos Venizelos, who was clearly enthusiastic about the developments said that after the adoption of the decision for the aid, now comes the strict enforcement of the medium-term rehabilitation program. A promise that caress the ears of investors, but with no guarantees. Especially if we consider the experience of Greece in "compliance" with the rules under Memorandum 1. The black hole in the budget revenues continues to grow, and the deficit on the current account reaches two billion euros.

The German magazine Der Spiegel fear that the eurozone will become a permanent fund for the transfer of capital from countries with strong economies to their weaker counterparts from the European periphery, and Industrialists in Greece warn the government that this is the last chance for the country, to prevent complete financial meltdown.

"This is the last chance to change the course of Greece," said the President of the Athens Chamber of Commerce Kostadinos Mihalos. He stressed that immediately adjustments in the tax system need to be made so as to make it fairer and more effective. Privatization plan should be activated and the government should put once and for all an end to the incentives of unfair competition. Otherwise, a new failure will follow, as known already from the first Memorandum, but with no opportunity for corrective action.

Tags: EconomyMarkets selective default Greece crisis Fitch
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