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The state of “non-war” between Greece and Turkey is being increasingly questioned following the new crisis that emerged in Cyprus, as a result of Ankara’s decision to send its Barbaros research vessel into Cyprus’ EEZ to conduct seismic surveys.

The crisis in the Cypriot EEZ comes at a time when the Greek side seems preoccupied with its internal political problems, the debate on the possibility of early parliamentary elections and its efforts to recover from the economic crisis.

So far, the reactions of Athens and Nicosia failed to halt Turkish action and instead urged Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to directly announce that Ankara would not stop its hydrocarbon research since it acted on behalf of, and under the authorization of, the Turkish Cypriots.

Davutoglu even sent an ultimatum to Nicosia and Athens, saying that if they contest the allocation of natural gas in Cyprus between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, the Cyprus division will be irreversible and the island might split into two countries.

Through its foreign minister Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek side accused Turkey of brutally violating international maritime law by commissioning its research vessel in Cypriot EEZ and the continental shelf. Greece said, "there are no uncertainties whatsoever concerning the EEZ and continental shelf boundaries". He called upon Ankara to change not only the course of its ship, but that of its foreign policy as well, and to stick within international law.

Greece and Cyprus have warned Turkey that they would block current negotiations between Turkey and the EU in an attempt to put pressure on Davutoglu’s government. The Cypriot government announced a list of eight counter-measures designed to trigger political and diplomatic sanctions against Turkey, including a freeze on the opening of new chapters with the EU, as well as exploring the possibility of appeal before the United Nations Security Council.

Military confrontation is not an option for Athens and Nicosia. "The Greek government is not considering the possibility of a military response against the Turkish aggression," said a government official before Proto Thema weekly.

An eventual escalation of the crisis could pose intractable problems for Greece, which has been investing in stability, in order to revive its economy. A possible security threat might slide the country back into recession.

"Even if we could back a military response, this would be a huge mistake," said a senior Pentagon officer before protothema.gr.

The big question facing Greece is how it would respond if Ankara decided to proceed with actions that might escalate the crisis, e.g. if Barbaros began its seismic surveys or if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave permission for exploratory drilling within Cypriot EEZ.

"All necessary measures to protect Barbaros have been taken, no one should be trying to provoke a crisis," warned Davutoglu.

Three Turkish warships are moving very close to the research ship in international waters but within the Cypriot EEZ. A Turkish submarine has been seen in the maritime zone of the Turkish part of the island.

The Kavaludis rocket carrier, located in the eastern Mediterranean, as part of the UNIFIL multinational operation monitoring Lebanon maritime borders, is the only Greek naval presence in the region.

According to protothema.gr, if the Turkish side turns up the pressure on Cyprus, the Greek government will send a frigate to the area. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is expected to make a statement to this effect after the timing of the action has been agreed with Lefkosia. This might happen during Samaras’ visit to Cyprus on 7 November. The participation of a Greek warship in UNIFIL gives legal basis to Athens to bolster its military presence in the Cyprus region.

The key question is how the Greek side will react if Ankara continues its tactics of ratcheting up tension and threatening to use force in an attempt to impose its agenda of splitting Cypriot hydrocarbons. Currently, Greece and Cyprus are committed to finding a diplomatic way out of the crisis.

As the Greek Foreign Minister Evangelos Venizelos stated, "Turkey creates a crisis at a time when international attention is focused on Kobani, on the Islamic State, on the fight against international terrorism and the recession in southern Europe."

The US has been sending messages to all parties involved that "it is important to avoid actions that could raise tensions in the region." And while Washington publicly acknowledged last Thursday Cyprus’ right to use its energy resources within its EEZ, the State Department spokesman added that "all the energy resources of the island should be divided equally between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities based on a common agreement."

The US has practically avoided putting pressure on Turkey, something that certainly has something to do with the cracks between Washington and Ankara over the fight against the jihadists. The Obama administration’s unwillingness to create another source of tension with Erdogan is evident - and Turkey has exploited this situation.

Meanwhile, at Friday’s summit in Brussels, Samaras had a clash with British Prime Minister David Cameron, as reported by the Athens News Agency. This occurred when Samaras presented the joint Greek-Cypriot position. The exchange between the two politicians is not known in detail. It is believed that Cameron insisted on a more moderate version of the European Council statement.

According to diplomatic sources, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has also expressed support for the Republic of Cyprus, whose position was expressed by Antonis Samaras. Merkel pointed out to the British side that just as other countries have EEZs, Cyprus is also entitled to one. Ultimately, the Council appealed to Turkey to show restraint and respect the sovereignty of Cyprus in its territorial waters and its EEZ.

The 28 also pointed out that any country that wants to join the EU is bound to fully recognize all member states.

Antonis Samaras said he was "extremely satisfied" with the final text of the Council decision. "The decision is very important, especially at this time, because it strengthens the national strategy of Greece and Cyprus and highlights the relationship between the two countries and the EU," he said at a press conference immediately after the meeting. The Republic of Cyprus’ official representative Nikos Christodoulidis also said he was happy with Europe’s firm message to Turkey in an interview for the Greek NERIT.

The EU stance shows that Europeans are reluctant to tolerate the Turkish aggression, but on the other hand may only impose political and diplomatic sanctions on Turkey to stiffen its international isolation.

Russia has openly taken a position in favour of Cyprus. The creation of the Athens-Nicosia-Cairo axis aimed at delimiting the maritime areas between the three countries is another factor that aggravates Turkey’s isolation.