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Ivan Petkov

PhD Evangelos Karafotakis is an economist, analyst of Balkan economies, journalist, currently a consultant and poet. He graduated in agrarian economy in Greece and defended a PhD dissertation in Bulgaria in "the good times for science" as he says. He has worked in the Greek newspapers Naftemporiki and Express. He has conducted numerous interviews with the men of the day, including 4 interviews with Andrei Lukanov. He says that "after the black days for my homeland Greece" he has returned to "my beloved Bulgaria", where he wants to receive a pension. He looks for peace, because there is no stress in Bulgaria. And this is very important for him. He has currently abandoned writing scientific books and articles and devoted himself to his literary hobby, which is poetry. He is planning to write a novel similar to Dimitar Dimov’s ''Tyutyun'' (Tobacco). "But it will not be about tobacco," he says with a mysterious smile.

I told him about the basic idea behind GRReporter - to provide two-way information from Bulgaria to Greece and from Greece to Bulgaria and he exclaimed, "This is a very nice idea! Such information is almost absent. For many officials and businessmen Bulgaria is a tax haven. And the people in Bulgaria think of Greece as a tourist haven. And that is all."

What do you think of the increasing indebtedness of countries and of Greece in particular?

It is a vicious circle. Once they have fallen in this vicious circle, countries are forced to obtain increasingly larger loans to cover existing liabilities. The problem is that after a certain point this money is not spent on developing and stimulating the economy. And when there is no functioning economy, each subsequent loan only increases the existing debt. Government loans have always existed, but this process has deepened since 2007. Before 2007, Europe had moved production operations to China. However, China is now working on a large scale and cannot produce so cheaply. It has so happened that Europe is not selling in China, while China is selling in Europe.

On the one hand, we work to ensure the payment of interest whereas on the other, we do not have our own production. And this process will come to an end. Regardless of how much Germany insists on financial discipline, it is good that this discipline exists but financial discipline alone is not enough, it cannot ensure the future. For each wave of government loans is higher than the previous one. If this scenario continues, European leaders will be able to save the euro, but only in the northern part of Europe. The next crisis is just a matter of time and it will be even more profound. The solution is the development of production throughout Europe, including in Bulgaria and Greece. Industry in Bulgaria may not be competitive, which is a separate issue, but Bulgaria has food industry. I hope agriculture will recover too, Bulgaria offers services and they are not at all bad, it has a basis on which to develop. The problem of Bulgaria is enormous monopolization. Monopolies in the various economic sectors do not allow competition, and this reduces the possibility of a monopoly to enter the international market. It is good to work with markets such as Russia and the former Soviet republics but it is good to export to Europe as well. Monopolies in Bulgaria are the legacy of the centralized planned economy. The state can no longer assume the role of a manager; therefore, the problem remains to be solved by monopolists in Bulgaria themselves. However, monopolists are not interested in this.

After so many years as an analyst of the Balkan economies, I have noticed the following cyclic pattern: the first generation after the changes in Bulgaria managed to evolve, to capitalize and it began to produce goods. The next generation began to consume the goods created by the first generation. The third generation will destroy everything. The third generation that will consume and destroy everything created is on its way. This process started in Greece many years ago, after 1952. We went through all three generations and now we have no first generation of the cycle to create.

Could Greece be the factor that will overturn the political dominoes in Europe and affect the euro zone, and in what respect?

Greece is not a determinant in Europe. Greece is not Italy, nor Spain, but if Greece leaves, namely Italy and Spain will follow it. Although the policy of Germany to Greece is rough, I understand very well what Mr. Schäuble and Mrs. Merkel are saying because they have what to lose. It is mostly the stability of the European Union. They want no factor to be the source of instability, even if it is a small one. That is why they are fighting against Greece with so much power and in this way. Europe's stability concerns us all.

In the case of a possible GREXIT and return of the drachma, it is expected that there would be a mass withdrawal of savings and money transfers to foreign banks in order for the money to be saved in euro. What is your opinion?

It would be better that this did not happen! I hope it will not happen. We will not talk about it, because it will not happen.

There is hunger for capital in both Bulgaria and Greece. In this situation, is there an optimistic perspective for the development of trade and economic relations between the two neighbouring countries?