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On the first working day after the Easter vacation, the Greek government has categorically denied the publication according to which it is preparing to suspend payments on the foreign debt service if no agreement is reached with the creditors. It was published in the British Financial Times economic magazine that refers to sources who are aware of the intentions of Athens. According to the article, the suspension of payments means that Greece will not pay any loans to the International Monetary Fund in May and June, which amount to around 2.5 billion euro. The newspaper also notes that the other euro zone member states in turn are angry with the negotiating tactics of the Greek government and are already drawing up plans for the possible bankruptcy of Greece.

Despite the efforts of the government of Alexis Tsipras to underestimate the seriousness of the moment, analysts warn that Greece’s bankruptcy will be inevitable if the attempt to reach an agreement with the creditors by the end of April fails. And there are several paths that lead to it, as Greek analyst Kostas Stoupas states in his analysis for the economic edition capital.gr:

"Taking power by SYRIZA, the representative party of the corporate interests that have occurred over the past 34 years and that are responsible for the viscous practices and the collapse of the country, is the last act of the Greek tragedy.

The bankruptcy of Greece in the hands of SYRIZA might put an end to the left illusions and to all distortions in the country. The collapse of the ruling party in the coming months will probably be the beginning of a complete rearrangement of the political scene.

Of course, Greece will pass through the Symplegades in the coming months and the probability of it clashing against the rocks will be great.

The possible scenarios over the coming weeks and months are as follows:

a) Internal suspension of payments: It is already a fact with regard to suppliers and can transfer to salaries and pensions. If this happens, it will probably trigger turmoil on the political level*. For those people who are generally aware of the state of the Greek economy this scenario is almost certain. The question is when it will occur and what will be its probable side effects.

b) Credit event: The inability of paying part of the maturities on Greek government bonds over the coming months will trigger a credit event, because of which banks will collapse and the economy will "suffocate". This will lead to a decline in revenues and an inability to pay salaries and pensions, i.e. to internal suspension of payments. Such a development will increase the risk of Greece exiting the euro zone.

The credit event can be avoided by an agreement under which the creditors undertake to pay the debt. So far, everything indicates that this is the most likely scenario. It seems that the creditors want internal suspension of payments to occur in Greece, as it will impose a total reorganisation of the social security system, public administration and the economy. This scenario aims at keeping Greece in the euro zone.

c) Control on the movement of capital: This is a very likely scenario. A lot of market factors are wondering why it has not been applied, considering that there is capital flight on a daily basis. When this happens, the current difficulties of the real economy will intensify and continue for many months ahead. This scenario will also lead to political changes*.

d) Deposits haircut: After the crisis in Cyprus, deposits are considered as another source of bank recapitalisation after shareholders and creditors. The question is what deposits have remained in the Greek banks in addition to the small amounts, salaries and the amounts withheld to service the loans. The probability of applying the scenario of deposits haircut is becoming great with each passing day of uncertainty for the Greek economy. The reason is that this continuing uncertainty is increasing the risks for banks.

e) Grexit: Greece has not yet been forced to leave the euro zone, primarily thanks to the intervention of the US, the reason for it being the geopolitical uncertainty which can result from the destabilisation of the country. However, the risk of Greece leaving the euro zone remains high, in the range of 30-40%. Leaving the euro zone is the most catastrophic scenario for Greece, both in the short and long term and no political force can deal with it.

These are the likely Symplegades through which Greece and its economy have to pass in the coming months.

* Possible political events

The occurrence of each of the above "accidents", either separately or in combination, could cause political turmoil, the most likely among them being the following:

Early elections 1: The government of SYRIZA is still enjoying considerable public support, causing many commentators to believe that, before entering into an agreement on the implementation of a new memorandum, it will announce early elections. It will thus "clear" the internal dissent and apply a mixture of reforms under "left denominator".

The problem is how the government will manage to cope with the extreme rhetoric against the memorandum, which has brought it to power. Mr. Tsipras has not indicated how he can successfully cope with this metamorphosis... Moreover, if elections are held in a situation of internal suspension of payments or a restriction of withdrawals from ATMs, nobody can guarantee their outcome.