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The "voluntary" loss to private holders of Greek government bonds, after updating the arrangements the European Union leaders made at the summit on July 21 this year, will be between 35% and 50%. The initial involvement of private investors in the bailout of Greece organized by the euro zone was set at 21%. This haircut has proved insufficient to restore the stability of the Greek foreign debt, because the reforms in the country did not take place as scheduled and did not yield the desired results. Many financial analysts, familiar with the cumbersome structure of the Greek state, had predicted the failure of the summer recovery plan and today the only option remains the voluntary remittance of most of the debt, or its replacement by a new debt that has a long maturity of 30 years.

However, the higher the percentage of the Greek debt reduction, the more unpopular it would be for private funds, banks and investors holding Greek government bonds. Capital markets are very thin-skinned and liquidity is limited. Those willing to lend a helping hand to Greece could be much fewer than envisaged, which according to initial estimates should be about 90% of the private holders of government bonds. At the same time, this would bring back Europe’s fears that Greece would not get away with the complete failure and the increased haircut would be treated as a "credit event". It could activate the market for credit default swaps, "CDS", and the collapse that the European Union countries and the International Monetary Fund have been trying to avoid for the past year and a half. "A significant Greek debt reduction may lead to payment of CDS", Barclays Capital, Evolution Securities Ltd. and Credit Agricole confirmed.

In the United Kingdom, they are considering revising the agreement of July 21 this year, provided that the replacement bonds are issued under the Anglo-Saxon and not the Greek law. This would ensure the creditors that if Greece begins to struggle again to service its foreign debt it would not opt for their clearance and turn them into "zero coupon" by voting. The total capital of the Greek debt to be restructured or reduced by a certain percentage would be guaranteed by the euro area. Furthermore, there is much talk about the likelihood of the European Financial Stability Facility "EFSF" becoming a guarantee fund with about 10 times more capital than originally planned, which means that the entire euro system would have a serious financial backup of about € 4.5 trillion. Another trump card that will enter the cat and mouse game with the debt crisis is the European Support Mechanism "ESM". It will be established earlier than planned and instead of waiting for 2013, Europeans will rush to get it set up next year.

German bankers, however, strongly oppose the Greek debt haircut. The Union of German Banks believes that the arrangements made in the middle of the year for the private organizations involvement in the rescue program to fight the debt crisis significantly burden the banking sector. Involvement greater than 21% would put at serious risk the capitalization of financial institutions at a time when gaining liquidity is becoming more difficult. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann does not exclude the possibility of reducing the Greek debt, but the idea definitely does not appeal to him. "Greece should take control over the public sector and make the economy competitive. Debt reduction should not become the most attractive solution to the problem they have created themselves," said Weidmann. He opposes the idea of making the European Financial Stability Facility "EFSF" a guarantee fund, because according to him, this could not constitute a solution to the current problems of the euro area.