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The new EU requirements for stricter rules for capitalization and liquidity of the banks known as the Basel Committee 3 will lead to a slower credit growth, said the manager of the Bank of Greece Giorgos Provopoulos. He stressed that the new rules will encourage banks to rely more on the accumulation of deposits to make them financially more sustainable. The introduction of the requirements of Basel Committee 3 will inevitably affect the macroeconomic dynamics of Greece, and the economic development will be based to a great extent on on exports and improving competitiveness.
The export of more goods and services and and a greater variety of them will protect the economies from further turmoil, said Provopoulos. He stressed that at the same time the export of more and more varied goods and services is an important mechanism for reducing the foreign debt. Successful exports is an indicator of the higher competitiveness of the country and of the better positions it has in the world trade.
While it reaches, however this moment Greece must hold a series of economic and structural reforms which will set the basis of the economic upturn. Bold, rapid and effective reforms are required to avoid losing precious time which could be costly in the future. Fiscal consolidation is an important element in ensuring growth. It will reduce private investment in some sectors and more room will be made for investment in infrastructure that are crucial for the positive economic growth.
A major problem in achieving successful results from the fiscal stabilization is the public support in the implementation of reforms. This is also the weak spot of Greece, which in past year has been torn by constant strikes and protests against the changes in public sector, the reforms in the labor relations law and the social policy. "In a period of decline in income and rising unemployment, the achievement of this support may be a serious problem" was explicit Provopoulos.
There is no need for the invention of a new economic model, but the right economic model for Greece has to be found, which to lead to stabilization in the long term, said the chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Erik Berglof. According to him the countries of southeast Europe must focus on three main topics. Development of the capital markets, creating export capacity and improving the business climate as a whole.
Specifically, for the situation in Greece spoke the head of the local office of the International Monetary Fund Bob Traat. The two most serious problems of the country are that earnings are significantly lower than the spendings in the budget and the net price of the output produced by Greece is not profitable in the international market or otherwise it is not competitive. Reducing the deficit is much easier than raising competitiveness, said Traat.
"You have to make your economy more flexible". This process requires a shift in priorities from stimulation of the consumption to the promotion of export. "Reduce domestic consumption or the Mother Nature will do it for you. If you introduce serious reforms you will ensure a strong start on the international market and you will attract foreign investments". In this way Traat explained the need for changes in the working environment and the market liberalization. Labour reforms are needed to adjust salaries to the level of the economy. If we successfully introduce all the reforms, Greece can reach an economic growth of 6% of the GDP.
Entrepreneurship must take the place of the pervasive public sector in Greece, say experts from the International Monetary Fund. Therefore the optimization and improvement of public administration activities, simplifying of the tax system and eliminating corruption are required. Currently, people see the tax authorities as a threat. The reform must show that tax authorities are associates of the business, while at the same time it must improve revenue collection and reduce tax evasion. Simplifying the tax system and transparency in law enforcement will affect extremely well the state budget revenues and will radically change the attitude of citizens to tax authorities.
"The costs for social and health insurance that employers pay are disproportionately high compared to the production of the country and of the companies themselves," said Bob Traat. Privatization on the other hand is another trump card in the hands of the government that can take advantage of the unused public assets and attract new capital.
About the importance of education and the relationship between innovation and exports, as a catalyst for economic growth spoke the Chief adviser to the Bank of Greece Heather Gibson. She said that Greece ranks third after Norway and the U.S. in the list of countries with the highest number of universities, but unfortunately takes one of the last places among the countries with production of innovation and high technology. "You do not need these institutions, if you don’t develop new technologies," she said firmly. According to her, productivity must be stimulated, because the most productive countries by default are also the most competitive ones. Heather Gibson insists that we must emphasize on the quality of human resource and on the technological development, because in the long run this will lead to a positive result for the state.