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      To what extent would GREXIT be possible?
      Firstly, let me specify that I am not a lawyer and I am not familiar with the legal side of the issue, namely with the legal details and nuances, and whether it is possible to exit the euro zone without leaving the European Union. Another very important legal question is in what currency Greece’s current debt would be denominated. It is also a legal issue and I have heard different interpretations of it. It is of key importance unless Greece does not simply decide to default, once again in its history, and to cease to service its debt.
     In economic terms, it is completely possible to leave the common currency, it is not particularly complicated, except for certain important decisions that must be taken, mainly on the initial exchange rate of the new national currency, the choice of monetary policy regime (or in technical language, the issue of choosing a nominal anchor). By the way, Greece had already done something similar - it had left the Latin Monetary Union of which it had been a member from the 1860s until its collapse due to World War I. In this sense, Greece’s exiting the euro zone would be nothing new. It would be news for the euro zone itself, but not for the history of monetary unions or even that of Greece itself.
     How would it affect the Greek investments in Bulgaria and the trade between the two countries?
     As far as the Greek investments in Bulgaria are concerned, I see the possibility of two opposite trends, without being able to guess which of the two will prevail. Firstly, I assume that the new Greek currency would be much cheaper than the euro, as exiting the euro zone would be meaningless from an economic point of view if it remained so expensive. This would cause an escape from this expectably weak and expectably weakening currency (at least for a certain period). The escape from the currency usually takes the form of capital outflow from the country and part of this capital that would flow out from Greece would probably (even very probably, at least through banks) be directed to Bulgaria, where there already is a serious base of Greek companies and working capital. Secondly, my assumption however is that Greece itself would experience drastic hunger for capital at least for a certain period after leaving the euro zone, which would reduce the ability of the Greek capital to be directed wherever else, including abroad and including Bulgaria. The situation of Bulgaria itself has been the same for decades - the internal hunger for any capital dominates whereas the export of capital from Bulgaria is extremely modest (though it has apparently increased over recent years). Under the first assumption, we could expect growth of Greek investments in Bulgaria and decline under the second. I do not know which one would prevail.
     As to trade, in view of the considerable devaluation of the potential new Greek currency that I expect and hence, the relative appreciation of the lev to it, the most probable result would be a significant reduction of Bulgarian exports to Greece and a significant increase of Greek exports to Bulgaria. Here I must warn that many people accept the cliché that such a development (reduction of Greek imports and increasing Greek exports) is good for Greece, but I totally disagree with that cliché. The depreciation of the possible Greek currency would mean one thing: official recognition and announcement of a dramatic impoverishment of Greeks compared to all countries and people who receive their income in the stronger currencies. The change in the balance of trade would simply reflect this relative impoverishment. This was precisely the situation in Bulgaria in 1997 – a significant improvement in the current account balance, which, however, merely reflected the sharp impoverishment of Bulgarians compared to the other nations, due to the hyperinflation of the lev.
     Will there be direct consequences for the Bulgarian economy in such a case?
     There will be some, but they will not be significant. I have already mentioned for years that the primary significance of the Greek economy for Bulgaria is not so much associated with the banks, nor with the Greek investment and companies, nor even with the Greek know-how of doing business, of the absorption of European funds for the utilisation of resources that the Bulgarians have not used, such as abandoned land (though all these things are very important). The most important connection of Bulgaria to the Greek economy is the significant employment rate of Bulgarians in Greece. Unfortunately, a serious weakening of a possible Greek currency would make Greece less attractive to these people and the income that they would continue to generate there would fall, just like the income of all Greeks compared to that of Bulgarians. Obviously this would not be good news for Bulgaria neither in economic nor in social terms. For me personally it would be a new demonstration of a fact that is totally clear to every economist (but unknown to nationalists), namely that it is better to have wealthier neighbours than poorer one.
     How would this affect the stability of the euro and the euro zone?