Galery

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     What "many analysts" should always stress if intellectually honest is that the important variable is not the "membership or non-membership in the euro zone" but "implementing or not implementing reforms." If Greece carried out reforms, it would not be at the tail end, whether it would be a member of the euro zone or not. I think it would be better if it were a member than if it were not but it would not be at the tail end in either case. If Greece did not carry out reforms it would be at the tail end regardless of whether it would be a member of the euro zone or not. By the way, the situation here would be better, i.e., the bottom would be slightly higher if it were a member of the euro area than if not.
     What is the safest course that the Greek economy should take in the coming years, according to you?
     It is the course of reforms in combination with remaining in the euro zone. As my answer to the previous question indicates, from the perspective of long-term Greek prosperity, implementing reforms is dominant over non-implementing reforms and remaining in the euro zone is dominant over exiting the euro zone. The reforms are aleady giving results, which Greece can clearly show to its partners, as long as it has sufficiently convincing political arguments to do so whereas the scope and timing of reforms can be renegotiated to reduce their short-term social price (it cannot be reduced in the long term, it can only be delayed over time).
     From the perspective of political economy, I think today's Greek government is in the unique position of being able to take advantage of the already good political news that is appearing as a result of the painful reforms carried out by the previous governments. It can "ride", politically and rhetorically, an economy that is recovering because of its inner vitality, inevitably take advantage of the good news, carry out gradual reforms, obstructing corruption, putting down the ‘entrenched’ oligarchic interests, taxation of rich people who enjoy different privileges being particularly popular, and run in the next elections as a clear and popular favourite.
     How do you assess the strategy of the ruling SYRIZA party to terminate the austerity mode in Greece?
     The "austerity mode" in Greece cannot be terminated. This is just because the term "austerity mode" has only a rhetorical sense in ideological and political disputes, concealing an inevitable fact of life, which is that you have to fit in your own means and abilities. In the period from the beginning of the century to the present day, Greece has lived beyond its means, beyond the capabilities and productivity of its economy. This cannot continue.
     This would not continue if Greece remained in the euro zone, because its rules prevent someone from living beyond their means, with loans, for a long time. This would not continue if Greece left the euro zone because it would have to abruptly live within its own means through a sharp decline in the relative standard of living due to the devalued currency. Then subsequently, the desire of world capital markets to finance such a life would dramatically discipline the ability to live beyond your own means, with loans, just as Bulgaria is currently restricted and disciplined.
     Greece cannot continue to live beyond its means, with loans. There is no way for the period of the first decade of the century, when the average product per capita in Greece was about three quarters of the product per person in the EU and the average consumption per person in Greece was higher than the average consumption per person in the EU to continue indefinitely, whether we call the alignment of these two ratios "austerity mode" or not.