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After the dramatic developments around the Greek economic crisis and the survival of the country for the good of the whole euro area, we could not but ask the public on how things would develop. We asked our readers "What do you think is the future of the Greek debt?". While the poll was running the events began to anticipate the expectations.

The conclusion made from it is not very optimistic, and the developments of the recent days only confirmed fears that dark times are awaiting the Greek people. This is the conclusion we reached based on the opinions of the readers who participated in the GRReporter poll on the future of the Greek debt.

On the average, the prevailing opinion varies between pessimistic and disastrous and the most popular answers that reflect the people’s expectations are two.
 
The first is that Greece would cope with the imposed reforms more or less with but it would not fully implement the goals set, and Europe and the International Monetary Fund would close their eyes for the sake of the greater good. Under the shadow of political instability in Greece, 37% of the Bulgarian voters believe that there is still some chance this to happen, and three of every ten votes in the English GRReporter share this opinion. The Greek readers are full of more hope. Half of the voters in the Greek version of the site hope that despite all the mess of the local politicians and the "old" trade unions, the country would not make nervous the Europeans to the extreme and the funding would continue, despite the incomplete implementation of the Memorandum.

Currently, this option seems to be the most realistic. Despite the tricks Greece played to its creditors, the Troika has not yet given up and the idea of ​​additional support of about another 100 billion euros for the period 2012-2014 is still on the table of negotiations.

The other scenario for the development of the debt crisis, which is very popular, is the sudden suspension of debt payments and leaving the euro zone. As a result of this option the competitiveness of the Greek goods would rise because of currency devaluation, but the external debt would "go into space" and the country would lose access to free borrowing from capital markets for decades ahead, like Argentina. 40% of the Bulgarian readers support this development and believe that Greece would return to the drachma sooner or later. Three in ten respondents in the Greek and English versions of the site also share this view.

Some economists estimate that this would give the necessary impetus, which the Greek economy is lacking today, to reorganize and begin the real recovery process. Others believe that the damage for the country and the euro zone as a whole from such action would be much more serious than the granting of a second package of support. It would cover the needs of the country until the deficit is zeroed and the revenues exceed the costs (formation of primary budget surpluses).

"Greece asks for voluntary rescheduling of the debt, the payments become easier, but it loses the confidence of the markets" is the third option, which few readers rated as possible. 14% of the Bulgarians, 23% of the English-speaking and only 8% of the Greek readers chose this scenario as possible. The main reason why Greece has not officially asked for rescheduling the payments on the bonds at maturity is that credit rating agencies would interpret such an act as a credit event. Despite the voluntary nature of the process in which investors would participate voluntarily and would decide whether they want to take their money later, markets would consider the rescheduling as failure of the country and all efforts to date to avoid bankruptcy would be lost.

Few are the votes for the most optimistic option, according to which Greece had to literally implement the Memorandum of financial support, to carry out rigorous reforms and mass privatization, and thus begin to reduce its debt. Today, it is almost 160% of the GDP, but the trends are that it will continue to grow significantly, because the budget lack at least € 10 billion revenue each year and the debt payments do not decrease. The most optimistic voters in the Bulgarian, English and Greek GRReporter respectively are 14%, 23% and 8%. Obviously, our Greek readers have the most realistic view of the local economy because they gave the fewest votes for the option Greece to implement the recovery program on time. Our guess is that those eight percent of the Greeks who voted for this scenario are those people who do not want to believe that the PASOK government missed a golden opportunity to reform the country while Europe and the IMF are funding it.

Thank you for your participation in our poll. Now, you can vote in the new one: "What do you expect from Greece’s new Minister of Finance Evangelos Venizelos?"