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Increased risk of Greece’s bankruptcy according to Standard & Poor's

10 May 2011 / 12:05:05  GRReporter
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Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece again and rated its state securities B from BB- in the long term and C from B in the short run. According to the world standards, the B rating means a high credit risk, but the state still has limited funds to pay its creditors, and its long-term solvency depends on the state of its macroeconomics. The C rating directly warns investors of high risk of bankruptcy, which could be avoided only in the presence of favourable macroeconomic developments. The official announcement of the credit rating agency makes it clear that the reason for the new cut of the Greek credit rating is the willingness of the country to reschedule its debts to creditors amounting to 80 billion euros.

They stated from Standard & Poor's that Greece is likely to proceed with the restructuring of its debt. To make its payment possible the first step should be haircutting it by 50%. At the same time, the agency analyst Frank Gill precludes Greece or any other country to leave the eurozone and defines this option as completely insignificant and legally complicated. In an interview with the Britain's Independent the Nobel laureate Nouriel Roubini excludes the possibility Greece or any other country to leave the eurozine now, but warns that everything would change after 5 years. According to him, it is better to leave the single monetary union rather than remaining in constant stagnation and recession.

The reasons for the agency’s decision include the significant increase in the budget deficit for 2010, the delayed cuts in public spending and the consequences of a delayed and weak economic growth. After Standard & Poor's, Moody's also warned that it would downgrade Greece which is currently rated B1.

Meanwhile, the Greek Ministry of Finance officially confirmed that it negotiates for a new loan from the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Citing an anonymous source from the same Ministry, Naftemporiki reported that Greece needs 66 billion euros in order to make the 2012 budget. It will receive 39 billion from the current loan of 110 billion by the Troika and the other 27 should come either from the markets, or from the European Financial Stability Fund. And as the markets are still closed for Greece, the additional funds most likely will come from a new loan from the Troika. For now, however, the amount of this loan is unknown. It and the conditions under which it will be granted are being negotiated at the moment.

According to the same source, one of the conditions for the new loan is the acceleration of the privatisation program, which has been prepared for about a year and has not seen the light yet. The 50 billion euros that Greece will have to collect from privatisation are expected to stop the growing foreign debt and to inject new money into the dry Greek economy.

Tags: Economic crisisDebt reschdulingCredut ratingLoan from the IMFFinancial stability
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