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Modern meteorology cannot make forecasts for more than 5-6 days ahead

05 November 2014 / 14:11:41  GRReporter
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"The worst winter of the decade is in store for the Balkans and Greece", "Prepare for the worst winter of the past 100 years," "We expect polar temperatures in the coming months." These are just some of the titles that have recently filled the Greek electronic media.

The article below them stated that "according to scientists, this will be a year of anticyclones for West Europe and heavy snow and arctic cold for East Europe". It even referred to meteorologists from Germany and Russia. "We should not expect spring warming even in March. Europeans will warm up from the sun as late as April," says German meteorologist Dominik Jung", reads the text that was published even by mainstream media. In addition, it contained information that "this year temperatures below -30°C have already been observed in Siberia. It is expected that this cold will reach Greece in November and December."

GRReporter sought comment from meteorologist and researcher at the National Observatory of Greece Konstantinos Lagouvardos. He said that the "news" is not really news, and that it was published last year too. "In all cases, it is wrong. There is no scientific way to make a reliable weather forecast for more than 5-6 days."

Lagouvardos said that meteorologists are developing experimental models to make weather forecasts for 25-30 days ahead but they contain inaccuracies because it is virtually impossible to forecast the weather for such a long period of time.

According to him, temperatures in Greece can now be described as slightly lower than the normal for the season. "We expect a slight increase in temperatures from today, and south winds, but we cannot determine this autumn as warm for sure."

The official forecast of the Hellenic Meteorological Service states that south winds will increase air humidity and bring broken clouds and the African dust. Clouds will be denser in the western, central and northern regions of Greece where it may drizzle.

Temperatures in Attica will be between 11-21°C and in Thessaloniki between 11-18°C.


Tags: ForecastsPublicationsWeatherSevere winterMeteorologists
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