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The Greek economy will shrink by 2.7% in 2012 and the number of unemployed in the country will exceed 800,000, according to recent forecasts from the National Bank of Greece for the development of the local economy. Analysts report that the high degree of uncertainty and delayed structural changes will postpone financial recovery to the second half of next year, while in the fourth quarter of 2012 there is hope for a minimum growth of 0.3%. This will be the lowest point of the negative economic cycle.

Data from the Department of Strategic and Economic Analysis at the National Bank of Greece show that the recession at the end of 2011 will be 5.9% of GDP. State budget deficit is expected to reach 8.5% in 2011 and about 7% of GDP in 2012, but this result could be achieved only if supported by fiscal measures equivalent to 4.8% of GDP for the last five months of this year and about 5% of GDP for fiscal consolidation and structural changes in 2012.

The report shows that government measures seem to have already started to give results, as illustrated by the double-digit growth in total state revenue in September, according to preliminary estimates. However, recessionary pressures will reduce their effect by approximately 2.5% of GDP in the second half of 2011 and will have further negative repercussions of about 2% for 2012. The drop in GDP on an annual basis is expected to be lower in the second half of 2011 compared with the first half due to the success of tourism in the period from June to August. Reduced unhealthy consumption and imports have had a positive effect too, which is reflected in the trade balance. Slow changes in the liberalization of labour relations also play a role in the slight improvement in competitiveness, but stabilization requires bolder actions.

Timely and effective implementation of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms should be the first thing undertaken. Their proper implementation will restore confidence in the Greek economy, internationally and in the domestic market. It will facilitate stimulation of economic growth trends. Secondly, all obligations under the decisions of the euro area leaders of ​​ July 21 should be met, including any amendments to them. Last, but not least, is the need for a pan-European solution to the debt crisis in the long run.

The results expected for the fourth quarter of this year are not so grim, because the Bank compares them with the results for the same period in 2010 when the recession hit peak levels and GDP dropped by 8.8%. Overall, the total reduction of the budget deficit for 2009-2012 is expected to reach approximately 9% of GDP and from 15.5% of GDP in 2009 it will drop to 6.8% in 2012.

The financial experts of the largest private commercial bank in the country anticipate that the promises made by George Papandreou's government will be implemented in practice and 2012 will prove to be the first year in decades to register primary budget surpluses, of estimated amount about 1.5% of GDP or approximately € 2.3 billion, as stated by the Minister of Finance Evangelos Venizelos at the last meeting of finance ministers in Luxembourg. Exceeding the revenue costs, according to analysts, will be an important step towards restoring the fiscal balance and the confidence of capital markets in the Greek economy.