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Anastasia Balezdrova

At the beginning of perhaps the most important week in Greece in recent decades, the country is anticipating the European decisions to solve the problem of its foreign debt. Although they were not specific, the yesterday's statements by the leaders of France and Germany, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy were indicative of the fact that Europe is determined to taking final decisions and the expectations are of a significant debt haircut.

About the debt crisis, the Greek government policy and the events in Greece, which brought it to the present serious situation GRReporter talked with Andreas Andrianopoulos - a specialist in political science and international relations, a longtime deputy and minister in six governments of New Democracy and the Mayor of Piraeus from 1986 to 1989. In 1994, he gave up his parliamentary mandate and withdrew from active politics, but continued to speak through his publications in the Greek and foreign press. Currently, Andreas Andrianopoulos is the President of the Institute of Diplomacy and Global Affairs at the American College of Greece.

Mr. Andrianopoulos, the summit of the European Union, at which the final settlement of the problem with the Greek debt will be announced, was postponed for Wednesday due to differences in the positions of Germany and France. What does this mean for Greece?

In practice, this does not change anything. Just the agony is growing because it is clear that Europeans cannot come to an agreement. And this is bad for us.

According to you, which solution to the debt is better for Greece? The forced and significant haircut required by Germany or France’s proposal for a controlled and less haircut?

We cannot say anything for sure. France is making the proposal to save the French banks; it is not making it for the sake of Greece. From the moment we have stopped actually to implement the memorandum of economic aid and have not reduced the public sector, we are in a very difficult position. All solutions are bad in the long run. There is the risk that the big haircut of the debt could take us to an official bankruptcy (credit event), but it is also possible to allow us to take a breath. In this case, the banking sector will be affected negatively.

The strikes by various professional groups have started several weeks ago and some of them continue. Last week, all activities in the country literally stopped for two days. What is your comment on these social responses, given that many foreign banks have indicated in their analysis for Greece the danger of a social rebellion outbreak?

A response without a proposal in response is a manifestation of nihilism. What, exactly, is the alternative solution? Those are calling who work where the problem was created - in the public sector. Those who bear the burden of the crisis, without being guilty, i.e. the workers in the private sector, the fired, the property owners are not reacting so much. These are Greek peculiarities.

During the second day of the Pan-Hellenic strike in central Athens, there were clashes between protesters and hooded youths, and the police did not respond to them. Some commentators have identified what happened as a dangerous and disuniting phenomenon. What is your opinion?

When the police intervene, they are subject to very sharp attacks. When they do not interfere - all criticize them for that. At some point, we have to decide what we want from the police in order to know what to do. Unfortunately, my opinion is the same as yours. I see signs of disuniting collisions. Let some people assume their responsibilities at last.

How would you define the government policy of continuous imposition of emergency economic measures doomed to failure from the outset?

The government is obsessed with the imposition of taxes, because it does not dare to reduce the public sector. There is the essence of the problem. It fails because of that. And of course, it does not implement the memorandum. That is why there are no results.

What is it that the government could do to effectively reduce the public sector, without shocks?

It should revise the state budget expenditures paragraph by paragraph and cancel those, which are not completely necessary. And here we are talking about that the expenditures have even increased in the last year! Amazing things ...

The government failed to make the necessary reforms and privatizations. Do you think it is able to make them now, when the society is against it?

It would be quite difficult. I think that we will inevitably witness political events. But I'm not sure that the outcome will be for good, not for worse. No one has actual suggestions for tomorrow and we all who have what to say are in absolute isolation. I have no great hopes, if the situation continues to evolve in this way.

After the vote on another bill last week, PASOK remained with 153 deputies. Do you think that this will accelerate the political events?

Not necessarily, but it will contribute to instability and uncertainty. In any case, there will be events.

What do you think would happen if early elections are announced? Would there be an independent government formed or parties would be forced to cooperate?

None of the parties will be able to obtain a majority of votes and it will be particularly difficult to nominate a coalition government due to the lack of a culture of collaboration. Therefore, we will talk about a long period of instability. The failure will be inevitable and no one will be able to introduce some order then.

How do you see the future of Greece in the coming years? When can we expect some improvement?

I cannot answer this question. The future is unknown. In such situations, only an unwise man would make forecasts.