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The European Commission now estimates that the measures which the government should implement by 201462.2 billion (25.5 percent of GDP), in order for Greece to succeed in reducing its deficit as a percentage of the GDP from 15.8% in 2009 to 2.9% at the end of 2014.

Despite the large amount referred to in the preliminary report of the Commission about the fifth evaluation of the memorandum, more impressive seems to be the deteriorating situation over the three months that passed since the previous visit of the Troika in Greece.

After completion of the medium-term program, the European Commission considered that the deficit of Greece will be reduced as a percentage of the GDP from 15.6% in 2009 to 2.9% in 2014, with the implementation of measures totaling 52 billion euros. An amount corresponding to 21.1% and smaller than today's forecast by 10 billion euros.

Naturally, along with the size of fiscal adjustment in its report, the Commission also changed its forecast about the fiscal parameters. A key point is the fact that for 2012, the Commission provides for a zero primary surplus at best instead of a primary surplus of 0.8% of GDP set in the previous report. Meanwhile the prognosis and primary deficit in 2011 from 1.8% to 2.3% of GDP deteriorates.

Surplus in 2013

The new report provides for a first primary surplus of 2.4% of GDP for the Greek economy in 2013 and 5% of the GDP in 2014.

Interest expenses, excluding the part of debt resulting from the Greek State guarantees to banks is estimated to reach 14.6 billion euros this year, 15.1 billion in 2012, 16.5 billion . euros in 2013 and 17.3 billion euros in 2014

Just as bad are also the estimates for the development of government debt, which is expected to reach 200% of the GDP by the end of 2013, when taking into account the guarantees given the by State to commercial banks.

Development of government debt

In particular, according to the report, public debt is expected to continue to grow over the coming years, reaching 354.7 billion euros (162.8% of GDP) this year, 384.9 billion euros (181.4 % of GDP) in 2012, 388.5 billion euros (181.3% of GDP) in 2013 and 382.1 billion euros (173.5% of GDP) in 2014.

If we add to these amounts also the guarantees to commercial banks in excess of 85 billion since 2008, then the increase of the national debt is even greater. From 354.7 billion euros in 2011 it will reach 420.6 billion euros (198.2% of GDP) in 2012 in order to further increase to 425.5 billion euros in 2013, reaching 198.6% of GDP, and to cool down later reaching to 190.9 percent of GDP, which corresponds to 420.5 billion euros.

All these, of course, are calculations without taking into account the implementation of the decisions made on 21^st of July, or some other version of them, in terms of increased participation of individuals in the debt restructuring.

In addition, however, the European Commission pressures to accelerate privatization, which will act as a "raw material" for the gradual shrinking of the black hole in the government debt.

Deterioration of the situation in the eurozone

The final data about the development of fiscal parameters in 2010, published yesterday by Eurostat register a fiscal deterioration in most Member States.

In Greece the government deficit last year was ​​24.125 billion euros against 36.300 billion in 2009 announced in absolute values. As a percentage of the GDP the deficit reached 10.6% against the 10.5% envisaged in the interim data from last April.

The debt has reached 329.351 billion euros against the 328.500 billion euros envisaged in the April data. As a percentage of GDP the debt reached 144.9% against 142.8%, as it was forecasted in April. It should be noted that in comparison to 2009 the national debt has increased by 15.5 points.

Government spending have been reduced by 1.5 percentage points (data from April provided for 2,4), and state revenues have increased by 1.5 points (1.8 points in April).

Only two countries (Luxembourg and Finland) from the eurozone had last year a deficit below 3% of the GDP. The remaining 14 countries are under observation because of their excessive deficit.

Throughout the eurozone the average government deficit amounted to 6.2% of the GDP or 572 526 million euros. The average government debt reached 85.4% of the GDP. It should be noted that the average debt has increased by nearly 18 percentage points since 2008 and by 5.5 points compared to 2009.

The sale of OPAP (Organisation for sports betting) postponed for 2012

Delaying the sale of the 34.4% of the Organization for sports betting (OPAP) which the state owns for 2012, was announced by the managing director of the Fund for the sale of state property Mitropoulos Costas.

In an interview with Reuters, Mr. Mitropoulos also announced the initiation of five privatizations by the end of the year. He stated that the sale of the 34.5 percent in OPAP owned by the state has not been intended for this year due to its very low market price. From the amount of 2.31 billion euros that the state would have received 6 months ago from the sale of shares of the Organization, today can only get 723 million euros.

Market prices lead to the refusal of the fund to proceed with the sale of shares of state banks, such as the Agricultural Bank, in which the state currently owns nearly 77% of the shares and 34% shares in the Savings Bank, after the stock value of these shares has dropped down to 226 and 75 million euros respectively.

Despite this, the Fund announced the completion of the privatization of the state-owned gas company DEPA and the national natural gas system DESFA as well as the final version of the contract for the management of the international airport "Elefterios Venizelos" in Athens with the German construction group Hochtief, which is expected to be completed within this month.

The next stage is announced to be the completion next week of the bids for the sale of the special purpose company, which will include all the state lotteries rights.

Privatization consultants

The list of advisers for 13 privatization programs which will be completed this year and next year, was published by the Ministry of Finance. Based on the decisions of the Interministerial Committee, the consultants are as follows:

- ELPE (Greek Petroleum Company): UBS Limited και Nomura International PLC.

- LARCO: HSBC Bank PLC και Pricewaterhousecoopers Business Solutions.

- Athens Airport: Legal Consultants: Papakostopoulos and associates - P. Elgeris and A. Gerontas. Legal counsel on matters of European Union Law and foreign law: Dewey & Leboeuf LLP.

- Aircraft: Grant Thornton

- Water supply and sewerage company in Thessaloniki: HSBC Bank and Eurobank [EFGr.AT] EFG Equities.

- Metropolitan water supply and sewerage company: Commercial Bank of Greece [CBGr.AT], Credit Agricole CIB and Eurobank EFG Equities.

- Casino in Parnita: Alpha Bank [ACBr.AT] and Investment Bank of Greece.

- The port of Piraeus [OLPr.AT], in Thessaloniki and regional ports: Morgan Stanley Bank "Piraeus" [BOPr.AT].

- Electricity Company: Alpha Bank, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, National Bank of Greece [NBGr.AT].

- Greek Postal services: Lazard Freres SAS, Pricewaterhousecoopers Business Solutions.

- Small ports and marinas: Investment Bank of Greece, a consortium of the firms Maritime & Transport Business Solutions, KLC Law Firm and "Rogan and associates."

- Regional airports: Eurobank EFG Equities and Citigroup Global Marketslimited.

- Organisation for horse racing: Legal Consultant - Rilerakis and associates.