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The punitive vote and the fear of its consequences will determine the outcome of the elections on 25 January

05 January 2015 / 21:01:56  GRReporter
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SYRIZA will form a government with PASOK, To Potami or George Papandreou’s party, if it fails to enter parliament. The same goes for New Democracy. Therefore, whichever party wins the elections will be able to form a government with some or all of the three parties mentioned previously, without the need for a broader coalition.

What changes may occur in the composition of the next parliament?

One of the changes entirely depends on which party will win the elections because this lead ensures a bonus of 50 additional seats. This means that almost 20 percent of the composition will automatically change.

As for the personalities, I do not think that they will change, as the elections are held very fast and there is no time to nominate new persons. Therefore, the majority of the new members will be the most prominent representatives of the parties.

As for the parties, is there a probability of Golden Dawn remaining outside parliament?

No, I think that it will enter it; only its rate will not be as high as it was in the previous parliamentary elections. All polls suggest that it will enter parliament and if we take into account the fact that the majority of the people who will vote for it are hiding this fact from sociologists, we can be sure that it will continue to be a parliamentary force.

Could Alexis Tsipras be the Prime Minister, who will sign the next agreement with the creditors despite his election rhetoric?

I cannot assess whether this could happen. Anyway, the statements concerning the actions of the possible SYRIZA government are not clear. He is now saying that he will request negotiations with the European partners of Greece, without providing a backup plan on what will happen if these negotiations are not successful.

As an analyst, I can only say that this is something that intensifies the feeling of uncertainty in some of the voters.

The time remaining until the elections is short, but is it sufficient to change the preferences of voters?

It is sufficient but this is relative. Once the parties have already said everything, one of the things that will have an impact is the reaction of the economy and international markets during this period, which can increase fear and anxiety.

The second thing, as I said, is which of the two main opponents will make a serious mistake during the pre-election campaign.

Tags: PoliticsEarly electionsSYRIZANew DemocracyPolitical crisis
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