Returning to the drachma would be a historical disaster for Greece and it will practically mean Albanianization of the country, say government sources in response to the increasingly widespread rumors of exiting the eurozone. The Minister of Finance George Papaconstantinou with a religious fanaticism is committed to implementing the provisions of the Memorandum between the Greek government and the Troika of the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and European Central Bank and this is not accidental. The minister knows that a possible deviation from the objectives of the document and stopping some of the tranches may have unpredictable consequences for the Greek economy. To destroy any confidence in the Greek financial institutions outside and cause inside further outflows of investment from the Greek banks. If this happens in order to save the local banking system the only way out will be the return to the drachma, but depreciated by at least 50 per cent against the euro.
Economists explain step by step the returning process to the drachma and explain the consequences for the country from this exceptionally unfavorable development. Moving to the depreciated drachma would mean that the purchasing power of the Greeks will decrease by 20 percent over a single night. The price of all imported goods will increase, but they are equivalent to one out of every 3 euros, which are currently in circulation. The restatement of the national debt in drachmas will result in the titanic figure of around 200 percent of the GDP. This will force the government to declare that it can not settle with creditors, among which are predominantly Greek banks. They will either have to bankrupt or be nationalized. To inject fresh capital into the market, the government will have to print billions of drachmas, resulting in an inflation in the country which will exceed 100 percent. Regarding unemployment, living standards, investment and economic security Greece will be back in the years 20s and 30s of the twentieth century.
It is obvious that there is no serious politician or economist who supports such a scenario. Markets, however, show Greece as a world leader for bankruptcy, which surpasses even the govern by Hugo Chavez Venezuela. A survey of the company CMA Datavision shows that the highest insurances against failure of the government bonds with 5 years maturity, the so-called credit default swap or simply cds belong to the Greek government bonds. Their value is 1026.5 basic units, which means that for bonds worth 10 million euros the Greek state pays more than 1 million in insurance. For reassurance the company stresses that two other countries in the eurozone are located in the top ten of the world for most likely failures. Expected these are Ireland and Portugal.
If you add to all this also the eventual lowering of the credit rating of Greece by the international agencies Moody's and Fitch in late January, the moment does not look promising for the sale of Greek bonds. But this is exactly what will happen on Tuesday. On January 11th, the Organization for government debt management will issue 6-month bills worth 1.5 billion euros, which it will offer to domestic and foreign investors. Their maturity will expire on July 11th. This will be the first test for the country since the beginning of the new year, which will have to show what will be the interest in the securities offered and what will be the interest rate at which lenders will be willing to borrow money to Greece. In the last two securities sales with short maturity the interest rate formed around the high 4.5 to 4.6 per cent. The government made it clear that an interest rate below 5 per cent would be considered a success. On January18th, the country will also issue securities with a three months maturity period.
As the Greek Finance Minister George Papakonstantinou also the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou have repeatedly stated that the goal is for Greece to enter in the international markets before the end of the calendar year. In the Memorandum with the Troika it is provided for Greece to start being credited by the international markets next year 2012. The majority of analysts, however, evaluated both dates as overly optimistic. In other words unreal.