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The situation is favourable for New Democracy but Greeks may give Tsipras a second chance

04 September 2015 / 23:09:06  GRReporter
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It remains to be seen what action she will take, but I do not think she is a phenomenon that should occupy Greek society. This was understandable until now, because she was the chairperson of parliament and could not take the stand required by her institutional role but as an ordinary MP her words will mean nothing more than the words of the other 299 MPs.

I must say that I do not applaud such phenomena.

How will the 62% of the negative referendum votes be distributed in the elections?

They may vanish. To be precise, the rate of 61.3% was not homogeneous. The opponents of memorandum, the supporters of drachma, the opponents of budget cuts and so on gave the "no" vote.

However, the positive vote of 38.7% was very compact. All were for Europe, the euro, the memoranda.

After the change in Tsipras’ policy, the percentage of the negative vote will most likely disappear. I do not think that the forces that make up the front against the memorandum will achieve this result. The numbers show this as well. While the sum was 51% in previous elections, it would hardly exceed 40% this time.

Do you think that the voters who actually support the idea of ​​Greece leaving the European Union and NATO form a high percentage? Because the negative vote expressed just that.

Yes, that is right. The trend was strong. My opinion is that the people who want Greece out of the EU and NATO account for 25-30% of the voters.

How will they vote? Will they vote for SYRIZA?

Well, 5-6% support the Communist Party, 6-7% Golden Dawn, 7% SYRIZA, as indicated by recent polls. Add to them the percentage of Panagiotis Lafazanis’ Popular Unity party and the result is 25%. We can add to it the percentage of far right Antarsia and all others and we will have almost 30%.

This percentage is very high for a European country. To it, we must add the supporters of Independent Greeks too.

Will it be able to enter the next parliament?

I think it will. Panos Kammenos is like cats - he has seven lives. However, a strong current in favour of New Democracy may form on the eve of elections and it may leave Independent Greeks outside parliament.

What will the votes of Greek voters determine in these elections?

The question is a very good one but it is hard to answer. After SYRIZA’s turn to the memorandum Greeks have difficulty in choosing the party for which to vote. I think that outside the compact party cores the bet is whether voters will want to punish Tsipras for having changed his policy and for having rejected all the promises, which means they will vote for New Democracy or Popular Unity. It is possible, however, to give him another chance because he is young and more or less, they consider him "not used up" and forced to pay for past sins, and so on.

I am saying this with great reservations, as the differences in percentages are very small. Currently no data allow us to say that the electorate will vote in a specific way.

Tags: PoliticsEarly electionsSYRIZANew DemocracyCoalition cabinetPolls
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