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Ivan Petkov

At the beginning of each year, we are flooded with all kinds of "predictions" and "assumptions" associated with each sector of life: business, politics, culture, sports, technology. Here I will try to take out my crystal ball and predict the trends in mobile technologies in 2012.

Apple, iOS, iPhone, iPad & Co.

I am starting with the company, which has been on the crest of the technological wave and driven the trends in recent years with its products. A sad event happened last year - the man, the visionary and main conceptual drive of Apple - one of its founders - Steve Jobs passed away. Inevitably, everyone is asking what road the company will take and whether its new products will be as successful as today’s. It is claimed that Steve Jobs was working on next generation products, which are to be launched this year. Surely, they will bear his invisible presence - something that hardcore fans of the company will appreciate.

iPhone 5 will be radically changed. As always, these are just rumours and the truth will come out in autumn this year when the smartphone is expected to be presented. Most likely, the design will be different because so far, Apple has strictly followed its plan to launch two generations of iPhone with the same design and make changes over two years. There will be many new things – aluminium body, larger screen, LTE capabilities and NFC chip possibly. Of course, there will be improvements in all other hardware components.

iPad 3 will also be launched this year and will be the successor of the undisputed leader in tablets. Its features will also be upgraded, but what we all expect to see is the iOS development - the operating system (OS) that powers the mobile devices from Apple. iPad offers many more features for visual presentation of products and is something more than a photo frame, an electronic book and a game device for Angry Birds. For that purpose, Apple has to enhance its operating system and the capabilities of the tablet. In general, the year promises to be successful due to the positive trends for the company from Cupertino, which has a large army of fans and a lot of customers, the largest store for music and mobile applications - iTunes as well as products perceived as icons and combining design and quality.

Google, Android, tablets and segmentation & Co.

Google is a huge company with many activities, which is the main driver behind the Android project. The lightning progress of Android, with a new version every 6 months, has quickly added all the necessary features to the operating system that make it competitive with iOS. Consequently, however, there is segmentation among the devices using the open source operating system. To be fair, it must be said that the Android platform is not monolithic but rather a set of many and various devices running the  'green robot.' And as enough functionality has been developed, this year the company will strive to fine tune its OS by continuing the integration of services they offer and are still developing. Android 4 is the latest OS and presents Google's drive towards standardization and setting a single interface to the platform’s applications. The Holo project has been recently announced and its aim is to unify the appearance of all applications, regardless of the manufacturer of the phone and the developer of the application. A few days ago, Google released a guide for designers.  

Tablets with Android. Android 3 was a version of Android OS designed specifically for tablets. Although there were many proposals from different companies, Android tablets could not take a larger market share. This year, Google and tablet manufacturers intend to change that. Android 4, which is named Ice Cream Sandwich, will unify the user experience and interface between Android phones and tablets. Furthermore, applications specifically optimized for tablets have been developed for the time being.

Segmentation and manufacturers. Last year, Google acquired the mobile division of Motorola and thus obtained its own company to manufacture tablets and phones with Android. As soon as the deal was announced, Google rushed to reassure the other partners and manufacturers of devices using the particular OS that in no way would they favour Motorola to their detriment. It is certain, however, that Google will try to present a model that combines the platform personalization and updates receiving in the best possible way. It is no secret that the option to customize Android, which Google submitted to OEM manufacturers, is one of the main reasons for the delayed updates to the new version of Android and their lack in many cases. Apart from that, Android is used by devices in a different price range, some of which have pretty weak hardware. Another company that is very much involved in the competition for consumer interest is Samsung. The Koreans have become a technological leader and last year they presented the best, in technical terms, tablets and phones with Android. It is expected that this year the giant will consolidate its positions and try to go ahead of Apple in supplying smartphones and permanently displace Nokia as a leader in mobile phones. Last year, Samsung and Apple were often in the news broadcasts on their patent litigation. This year, the struggle between the two companies will continue as there are indications that Apple will change its policy and will not seek to prohibit the sales of competing products but to make agreements for licence fees.
 
Windows Phone, Blackberry & Co.

For years, Microsoft has been on the market of mobile operating systems with its Windows Mobile OS. At one point, after the emergence of iPhone, they decided to start all over again and to present an entirely new and different user interface OS. It took them time and ultimately, put them in the role of an outsider in the mobile OS. iOS and Android developed and the new mobile OS by Microsoft Windows Phone had a lot to catch up. To get even, Microsoft signed a strategic agreement with Nokia last year with which Nokia has agreed to replace their obsolete mobile Symbian OS with Windows Phone. We saw the first phones, the result of this cooperation, at the end of last year. They were not anything impressive from a technological standpoint, but hinted at the direction in which the synergy between Microsoft and Nokia will develop. What can we expect in 2012? Microsoft has allocated the amount of $ 200 million for advertising in the United States, where the position of Nokia as a brand is very weak. Moreover, rumours say that a bonus will be offered to vendors who recommend and sell smartphones with Windows Phone OS. The campaign has already begun with news from different analytical agencies that provide excessively optimistic sales. Technologically, we expect the platform to develop and to add missing components such as multicore processors support, NFC chip and others. The integration of Skype, which Microsoft bought last year, is still pending. This year will definitely be very important for the development of Windows Phone OS and its establishment on the market.

Blackberry by the Canadian company RIM has long been among the best performers in the industry and provided a stable platform for the business. The emergence of iPhone and Android has weakened its position and "Blackberries" quickly began to lose market share. To this we have to add their unsuccessful attempt to present a tablet. Honestly, this is the company and platform with the most uncertain future. On the one hand, investors insist on the sale of patents, on turning to Windows Phone OS and even on selling the company. The situation is not getting better due to the fact that not until the end of this year will the next generation of Blackberry OS be delivered, which is to be competitive with the branch leaders and able to power phones with competitive hardware.

Another loser from last year was HP, which bought Palm. After an unsuccessful tablet, the project was stopped and at the end of last year, HP announced that they would open the code of their WebOS mobile platform. There were talks about the sale of the Palm division. Intel, which abandoned the project MeeGo after the refusal of Nokia and transformed it into Tizen finally came into its usual line of hardware manufacturer of processors and introduced the first generation of mobile processors to compete with ARM architecture, which is the leader in mobile devices.

In conclusion, I will say that this will be a very interesting year. It will be the year in which mobile technology will evolve rapidly and play an even more important role in our lives. The year in which the concept of the computer will be changing and transforming. The players are known and we will be waiting for their actual moves.