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The sixth tranche of the bailout is to be paid earlier than scheduled insists the report by the supervisory Troika of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission. The message of the control mission makes it clear that the dynamics of the foreign debt are reaching dangerous levels, the recession is deepening and without financial assistance, the country would "explode" in an uncontrolled bankruptcy, which could drag down the entire euro area. The eight billion could be paid after the government votes on the controversial law that introduces cuts in part of the costs in the public sector, the payroll table, the labour reserve and reduction in the wage floor.

The Troika points out that if the fiscal adjustment and the objectives of the privatization programme are implemented and the measures for economic development are put into action together with the structural reforms, then the debt might begin to decline from 2013. Compared with the prospects a few months ago,  debt sustainability has deteriorated dramatically, mainly due to the delay in the fiscal consolidation measures and the lack of public sector reforms. Meanwhile, the funds needed for the recapitalization of banks are large because of macroeconomic instability and the country needs immediate assistance to provide the help needed.

The report says that the recession of the Greek economy is significantly greater than expected and in the medium term, growth forecasts should be revised downwards. The recession of the Greek economy is expected to reach 5.5% this year and 2.8% in 2012. The budget deficit for 2011 will not be less than 8.9% of GDP. Next year, it is expected to reach 7% of GDP and to drop to 5.3% of GDP in 2013. The Troika insists that in the coming months, there will be no revenues from privatization, so the plan to reduce the debt by selling public property is not applicable.

The proposal for early payment of the next tranche will be discussed at the meeting of Eurogroup tomorrow. Whatever the fate of the sixth dose, international investors are now counting the days to the official Greek bankruptcy. A survey by Merrill Lynch shows that 85% of the surveyed managers of financial funds believe that Greece will go bankrupt in the near future and only 8% say the country will meet its obligations. 31% of the respondents say that Greece will go bankrupt in the first quarter of 2012. One fifth of the respondents expect the Greek collapse in November 2011 and the same percentage bets that this will happen in December. Overall, 72% of the respondents are certain that the country will go bankrupt by March next year. As to the type of bankruptcy, Gary Baker from the U.S. investment bank said that Merrill Lynch expects "controlled" bankruptcy.