Photo: Vima Newspaper
There is a real chance Greece not to get the fifth dose of the bilateral financial support of 110 billion euros if the government of George Papandreou does not act bravely and seriously undertakes the lagging structural changes. The government impotence to achieve the goals set in the Memorandum of financial support showed that the deficit can not be reduced with this package. The privatization, the reduction of the public sector and the significant cut of public expenditure were late vitally and today the country should immediately adopt new budgetary measures to compensate the inaction of the government in recent months.
The detailed report of the Troika showed that the recession of 2011 will reach 3.8% of the GDP and a minimum growth of 0.6% of the GDP is expected for 2012. "The financial strategy should be revised," said the Troika, cited by Vima. "Taking into account that Greece would not have access to the capital markets in 2012, the rescue program would suffer revenue losses. The fifth tranche can not be paid before this problem is solved," says the report. In other words, the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Commission will await Papandreou’s mid-term recovery plan with the new measures to be voted and approved by the National Assembly before giving the fifth dose of 12 billion euros.
Meanwhile, the mid-term recovery plan caused a storm of responses in the parliamentary group of the ruling party as well as in the opposition forces and the public. The proposals relating to the reduction of the minimum tax-free gain of 12,000 to 6-8,000 euros was withdrawn today and the government replaced the measure with an "extra" tax on all taxpayers who declare income above 12,000 euros per year. Although the Ministry of Finance called the additional tax an extra, i.e. a single tax, it will obviously be of permanent nature, because it will be in force for at least three years, and then no one guarantees that it will not continue to be applied. According to latest information, this next extra tax would retroact to 2010.
The Greek drama that seems to have no end, made the EU ministers to hold an emergency teleconference to discuss the dark report of the Troika and the future of the fifth dose of the support. It was also decided that Greece should receive a further 90 billion euros by 2014, because the financial markets would remain closed to it for a longer period than expected. This would be the second support package that the IMF and the countries of Europe grant to the troubled Greece in the hope that this time it would fulfill the tasks of structural reforms and fiscal consolidation in time to stand on its feet in 2015.
A senior member of Eurogroup told Reuters this week that 90 billion euros would be divided as follows - 30 billion from privatization, 30 billion from private sector participation and a new 30 billion euro loan from the eurozone, the IMF and the funds that are supervised by European Financial Stability Facility.
After the meeting the Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker stated in writing that it is necessary Greece to strictly meet its obligations under the Memorandum, and the political parties to agree on the future of the economic policy. Fears are growing in Brussels that even if the mid-term recovery plan is approved, the situation in Greece is so unstable politically and socially that there are no guarantees for its realization. The lack of agreement on economic policy could have fatal consequences for the country itself but also for its creditors in the face of European taxpayers.