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Anastasia Balezdrova

A day after the failure of another attempt to reach an agreement the Greek government is saying it is ready to continue negotiations with creditors "at any moment". Meanwhile, time is running out to the detriment of Athens that has one more chance to agree with Brussels this coming Thursday.

Fears that the Greek government may not be determined to reach an agreement, although it is saying the opposite, have caused another wave of capital flight from Greek banks. Today alone depositors withdrew deposits worth 600 million euro, the repayment of larger amounts of several tens of thousands of euro being postponed to tomorrow. In this situation, President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi said in his speech to MEPs that the bank would be able to cope with a possible Greek default and Germany’s European Commissioner Günther Oettinger suggested that the European Commission should draw up an emergency action plan in the case that Greece went bankrupt in late June.

At the beginning of that critical week for Greece, GRReporter turned to political commentator Plamen Tonchev who commented on the developments before Anastasia Balezdrova.

All have recently stated that Greece is running out of time and Alexis Tsipras has to take a decision. What are the possible options before him now?

One is to agree to major concessions, which will undoubtedly be painful both for the party and its parliamentary group, and for Greek society. These measures will obviously include salary and pension cuts. Since Greek society has already lost 25% of its living standard, another contraction will be even more painful. However, it seems inevitable. The painful measures that the Greek government has to take are actually the obstacle to signing an agreement with the creditors.

The second option is to end up in a total collapse, which will not solve the problem in any way but will only complicate the situation. Actually, this is the major dilemma that is facing Tsipras and his associates, namely whether they will seek to retain political power at the cost of a total collapse of the Greek economy or if they will adopt a tough and very difficult political decision in order to preserve what they can preserve from the national economy and even from its prospects.

Some believe that the Greek position is deliberately presented as extreme in order for parliament to easily pass the severe measures of the agreement. Do you share this opinion?

It is possible because the whole tactic of SYRIZA in recent months has been based on tricks. I have seen no strategy in the negotiations and the behaviour of the government but rather constantly changing tricks in order to surprise the interlocutors. However, these tricks have no future or a chance. As far as I understand even the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund are already tired of them and of these protracted negotiations.

Moreover I think that the attempt of the government to radicalize or make extreme the tone of the negotiations in order to subsequently present whatever agreement is reached as a great success will have no special meaning and pay no dividends.

How do you think the opposition will react upon signing an agreement and what will be its motives?

Obviously, we are talking about the three pro-European parties, because the position of the Communist Party and Golden Dawn is clear - it is negative.

The easiest is the answer about the Potami (the river) party because it is now announcing that it will accept any agreement achieved under any conditions. It is another matter whether this position is meaningful and to what extent but at least their answer is clear.

Major disunity will possibly occur in the parliamentary group of New Democracy because the majority around leader Antonis Samaras apparently is negatively set. There is even a line drawn among MPs that the party may again become an opponent of any agreement. That is, the party will go back in time (2010 - 2011), when New Democracy was against any agreements with creditors. More moderate and liberal lawmakers are now suggesting that they will support the agreement reached by the government but pose the question about the exact conditions under which it will be achieved. I think this question is meaningful, because if it provides for new taxes and no cuts in government spending or in higher wages and pensions, it will obviously be socially unjust.

I have no idea of the position that the third party, PASOK, will take with its newly elected leader Fofi Genimata. I suppose it will support an agreement with some reservations.

The three pro-European parties are claiming that an agreement has to be reached. It is a must in order to prevent the absolute collapse of the economy, but there are many nuances in the positions, not only among the parties but also within them.

How do you see the future of PASOK after the election of a new party chairperson?

I do not see the future of PASOK. I think it is only a matter of time for us to witness a very modest funeral of PASOK in this form and under this name.

As far as I know, discussions on changing the party name and symbols are underway in the party itself too. If it wants to survive, it must be re-established. It is currently a political anachronism. This may be true for New Democracy to some extent but it is an obvious fact for PASOK.

What are the possible political developments that the reaching of an agreement and the failure to reach it will provoke?

The developments will be turbulent in all cases, because if some agreement is reached, it can only be painful. There will be problems with regard to the parliamentary group of SYRIZA - whether it will remain united and to what extent. Obviously, there will be members who will not agree with the deal. I do not mean the Left Platform of Minister of Development and Energy Panagiotis Lafazanis. Although they are opposed to reaching an agreement with creditors, they have no internal discipline and their position will depend on the agreement between Lafazanis and Tsipras. But there are many unpredictable MPs. I think that at least some members of SYRIZA will leave the parliamentary group because of their opposition to a possible agreement.

In all cases, the pro-European parties too will have different opinions on the terms of the agreement. As I said, New Democracy will definitely have arguments against them. However, it is still the better option.

If no agreement is reached, which is also quite possible, the economy will totally collapse. Whether there will be capital controls or the European Central Bank will possibly provide some liquidity to prevent a banking crisis is a question the answer to which is not yet clear. But the real economy is languid.

I suppose that state institutions such as hospitals, the police, etc. will have serious problems. Schools will anyway be closed during the summer but there will definitely be problems with transport, at the peak of the tourist season at that. It will be a very difficult period and the long-term prospects of Greece as a country and economy will become clear in the autumn. With or without an agreement, then we will know which way Greece will be going. It is simply because even if an agreement is reached now, its application is very much in question.

Are any changes in government possible? Is there a probability of forming a coalition government with the participation of all parties for example?

Such options are under consideration but now nothing can be predicted. I think that even if a coalition government involving the opposition parties is established, there is no leadership figure other than Alexis Tsipras. I do not think Antonis Samaras could return as Prime Minister. He is so discredited that he has no chance.

I do not see a figure in the other parties that could take up this post either. I therefore consider that Tsipras will continue to be Prime Minister, even in the case that his current cabinet or parliamentary coalition has reshuffled.