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Anastasia Balezdrova

At a time when the division of Ukraine is closer than ever, the major powers in the region and the world, such as the European Union, Russia and the U.S., are openly against this outcome of the conflict. At the same time, the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine have firmly opposed the protests whereas some supporters of the events in Kiev have appeared in Crimea.

The development of the conflict, the opposing sides and major players on the political scene, and the final outcome are the topics of a GRReporter interview with journalist Dimitris Triandafilidis. He graduated from Kiev State University, he is a political journalist and translator of Russian.

Dimitris Triandafilidis in Kiev

The situation in Ukraine

The country has only a few hours to avoid a generalized civil war but I am not at all sure that it will be able to do so. This depends on the actual players of the crisis who finally came to the fore yesterday. I mean the "Right Sector." This is the frontal organization of the Ukrainian nationalists and neo-Nazis who are located in the region from the Carpathians to the central part of the country. Their leader is 40-year-old Dmitry Yarosh. These people have already announced that they will not give up their weapons until the end of the Ukrainian revolution. To them the end means sending all politicians to prison. They have also stated that they will prohibit the use of the Russian language and close the few schools where the Russian language is taught.

Photo: Reuters/ Maks Levin

On the other hand the southern regions of Ukraine, namely Odessa, Kherson and Crimea, where Russian-speaking people live, as they are called now, but they are actually people of Russian origin, state that each area that wants to join the European Union is free to do so as long as the plan does not include Crimea. The local government had announced this a week earlier and confirmed its decision yesterday. The same is true in the majority of the southern regions of Ukraine, which have a Russian population. The only problem there is Tatars, a small ethnic group that collaborates with the Ukrainian nationalists. Their goal is the separation of Crimea from Ukraine and its integration into Turkey. Many of them have recently participated in the war in Syria on the side of the Mujahedeen.

Moreover, there is already information about the existence of training camps of nationalists and extremists in the Carpathians. It is known that they are organized in 100-member teams following the example of the Roman legions. For example, unit 23 is controlling Maidan Square in Kiev and carrying out military operations there. A sniper was arrested on Sunday night who fired at the police and the protesters.

How could all those who claim that Ukrainians are divided into pro-Russian and supporters of the European Union explain these facts? The methodology of this analysis is wrong.

Scenarios for resolving the crisis

I think the interests of the two strong players in the region, namely the European Union and Russia, coincide at present. The scenario of dividing Ukraine into western and eastern does not benefit anyone. If a state is created in the western part of Ukraine it will be 10 times poorer than neighbouring Poland, it will have a far right, Nazi government and zero industrial infrastructure, which will be a nightmare for the European Union.

At the same time, central and eastern Ukraine, which will be in the Russian sphere of influence, will be an unstable area of paramount importance for the defence of Russia. We must not forget the fact that the two largest Russian naval bases are in Crimea. They ensure Russia’s outlet on the Mediterranean Sea, especially after Moscow has recovered the governance of its naval forces in the Mediterranean after a 25-year break. The country has 20 major warships that had arrived in the Mediterranean during the crisis in Syria.

I think the U.S. triggered the crisis in Ukraine while trying to break Russia's attempts to create a customs union as an initial structure for the future establishment of a Eurasian Union modelled on the European Union. The U.S. tried to gain geostrategic dominance. They have succeeded to some extent, contributing towards the emergence of an Eastern European Hitler at the same time. The situation is just that. Yarosh does not hide his intentions. He speaks about a country based on the law of blood, on the "purity" of the Ukrainian people and the use of the Ukrainian language alone. And all this in a country that is a mosaic of ethnicities.

Viktor Yanukovych, Yulia Tymoshenko and the "Right Sector" group

He was a representative of the corrupt elite and another of its representatives, Yulia Tymoshenko, is replacing him. There is no possibility of Yanukovych returning. He is either hiding somewhere in eastern Ukraine or is already in Belarus, where he will spend the coming years with the money he has acquired by illegal means. His son was the biggest mobster in Ukraine. Can a dentist like him win all public procurement in the country in 2013?

Photo: Reuters/Vasily Fedosenko

As for Tymoshenko, she was an ordinary accountant in 1989 and acquired in 1995 the fifth largest energy company in the region between the Carpathians and the Bering Strait. One question associated with her is how did she manage to earn as much money to buy such a company?

Secondly, I would like to know what happened with the arrest warrants on the charges of fraud that different European countries had issued against her. Why is there this silence regarding them? However, the European Union presents her as an alternative for Ukraine. Tymoshenko's release from prison was the subject of the negotiations for Ukraine’s EU accession agreement. I find it very strange how, from the warrants for her arrest, things have suddenly changed and she has become a condition of this agreement.

These are tragic mistakes on the part of the European Union. I think it is currently experiencing its biggest geostrategic loss since the establishment of the European Economic Community.

I do not think that Tymoshenko is able to influence the events and appease the spirits. Now, the strong political factor is Nazis. We are talking about thousands of people with guns in their hands, from simple "Tokarev" pistols to self-propelled guns. They have an army and do not hide this fact. Yesterday, their spokesman said on "Echo of Moscow" radio, which is the only independent radio, "We have come out of the shadows. We are here and we will stay. We will not give up our weapons, we will not leave the squares, we will not free the public buildings captured by us." Tymoshenko has appointed an interior minister and urged this movement to take over the positions of generals. Can you imagine a meeting of the chiefs of police of the European countries at which the representative of Ukraine will be a neo-Nazi?

Applying the "model of Finland" in Ukraine

The introduction of "special" relations of Ukraine with the European Union or Russia depending on how the balance will turn regarding the parallel financing of the country is an option that is highly unlikely to materialize. The developments over the next few days will show whether this will be possible.

The role of Greece

This is not related to the Greek Presidency of the European Union because foreign policy is not guided by the presiding country but by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

However, Greece, as a country that has common cultural traditions with both Ukraine and Russia and the European Union, could play the role of mediator. It could establish contact between Russia and Germany, even in the form of lobbying, and bring them to the negotiating table. However, I do not know whether we have a politician who is appropriate to undertake this task.