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For whom the bell tolls in June

14 April 2011 / 16:04:32  GRReporter
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June 2011 will prove crucial for the issue of economists’ concern lately, namely whether Greece will have to restructure its foreign debt or not. Wolfgang Schäuble told the German edition Die Welt that, the Europeans are waiting for the report on the development of reforms in June this year, which will make clear what the fate of the Greek debt will be. The German Minister of Finance said that, if the report's conclusions show that there are doubts about the sustainability of the debt, something will have to be done. He is clear that if Greece goes beyond the regular limits scheduled in the Memorandum of financial support, additional measures will have to be taken so as to ensure the final budget deficit reduction.

According to Wolfgang Schäuble, if it comes to debt restructuring prior to 2013 - a scenario that is unwelcome in Europe - it will have to be completely voluntary and with the consent of the investors. Notwithstanding the firm position of Athens, Brussels and Washington that there will be no debt restructuring in Greece, many international analysts continue to believe it unavoidable.
 
The analyst of eurozone countries’ foreign debt at Standard & Poor's Mortis Kremer stated this week to the German edition of Die Zeit that the creditors of Greece will have to agree with a haircut of between 50% -70% of the bonds they hold. According to Kremer, the most likely scenario is the European Union to further extend the payment term and further reduce the interest rates on the debt repayment. However, this measure would not be sufficient because, according to analyst, thus the debt will be reduced from 160% of the GDP to 130% of the GDP, which does not solve the problem of the country.

According to the same publication, other financial analysts from the Union believe that the Greece will have to get rid of about 40% or 50% of its foreign debt to enable its sustainable repayment. Li Bu Hayat from the law firm of Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton, who was adviser in the restructuring of the Hungarian foreign debt in 2003, told Reuters that it would be best to proceed with a voluntary restructuring after June 2013. It would be in the form of voluntary agreement with the bondholders and there would be no serious consequences for the rest of the eurozone countries.

Tags: EconomyMarketsForeign debtRestructuringEurope
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