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Anastasia Balezdrova

As SYRIZA leader and Greece’s current Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras promised, the first bill submitted for voting by his office purposes to "alleviate those affected by the humanitarian crisis." The measures described in it alone would require over 150 million euro. In parallel, the government has already provided food allowances for the employees of the Public Power Corporation DEI and as GRReporter has announced, it is planning to re-launch the former state broadcaster ERT and reinstate to work all of its more than 2,600 employees.

At the same time, the financial team of the cabinet is collecting "euro by euro" the nearly 1.5 billion euro required for the payment of part of the loan from the International Monetary Fund. According to the majority of commentators, March will be crucial for the situation in Greece, since it is not excluded that it remains without money, being unable to pay salaries and pensions at its end.

We discussed the possible alternatives and developments for Greece in the coming months if it has no funding with Greek writer and political analyst Sakis Moumtzis.

Mr. Moumtzis, we see that the first bill of the new cabinet, which is submitted to parliament, aims at dealing with the so-called "humanitarian crisis" and it is expected that its cost will amount to almost 200 million euro. At the same time, the government is promising to re-launch the state broadcaster ERT, it has already given additional benefits to the employees at the Public Power Corporation. Where will it find the money for all this and for the payment of its obligations to the lenders?

If it does not obtain any assistance from the European Union, it simply will not find the money. This is clear. It will not find it either in March or in April.

Therefore, the government is interested in being able to vote in parliament some bills that will determine its ideological profile. Its aim is to consolidate its position among the voters.

Why has this happened? It has happened because in no way can this cabinet complete the latest monitoring of the rescue programme in June. Therefore, my personal opinion is that there will be early elections by the end of May. There is no way for the European Union to give Greece the tranche of 7.2 billion euro which it needs to pay off the huge maturities of the bonds that are due in July and August without bending the government. This is not only Germany’s position. The ratio in the euro zone is 17 to 1, which is why the government is now building up its "popular" profile.

I must say that Greece’s European partners do not aim at it exiting the euro zone. What they are trying to do is to bend the government in terms of politics, to drive it to throw Kammenos’ party out of the coalition and for the far-left wing of SYRIZA to unite with other parties like Potami and PASOK.

As for the "humanitarian crisis", it is certainly an exaggeration. 500,000 out of 1.4 million unemployed today were unemployed before the crisis. They were the constant unemployment rate in Greece, or 8-10%. The percentages to today's 25% are due to the crisis and we are talking about former employees of private companies. According to statistics, more than 300,000 companies have closed down since the beginning of the crisis. Currently, the private economy is shrinking. And when things settle down by an agreement, hopefully this will happen soon, it will restart from a position that is much more severe than in 2012. The damage to the real economy from December, when early elections were announced, to the present day are enormous.

What would the outcome of these possible elections be?

If events continued to develop as before, probably SYRIZA would win with a big margin.

But if some "incidents" occurred, such as the introduction of a limit on the money that could be withdrawn from ATMs for some time, as was the case in Cyprus 2 years ago, then people would find out that they would be involved in an affair, despite their reluctance.

The vote for SYRIZA on 25 January stated, "Negotiate, but whatever you do, we want to stay in the euro." When the majority of citizens who voted for SYRIZA find out that the pace of negotiations can lead to exiting the euro zone, their voting behaviour will change.

Isn’t it logical for their behaviour to change anyway, when it turns out that SYRIZA will not be able to keep its campaign promises, because it cannot obtain the money required for this purpose from anywhere? How would you explain the forecasted victory in the possible elections in May?

The time until then is very short, it is less than three months. If the incident I described does not occur and the situation remaina unchanged, and the government fails to find any money or obtains a loan from another country such as China, it might receive 3-4 billion euro in exchange for something; we must not forget that the Chinese want to redeem Thessaloniki port.

But in this case, the government would violate the European Union conditions. It is not possible for a country to receive such a loan without the approval of Brussels.

That is, it will be unilateral action. And Greece is committed to refrain from such actions under the agreement with the lenders.

Of course, it is. Re-launching the former state broadcaster ERT is also unilateral action. Moreover, it is due to the fact that in order to support it, the government said it would increase the user fee. However, it is actually a tax in favour of third parties. The fact that the government calls it otherwise does not change anything. The lenders are aware that it is a tax in favour of third parties and that Greece is committed to eliminate all such taxes. The European partners may declare at any time that the government cannot re-launch ERT and will do so.

As we have seen, the European Central Bank had intervened in the decision on non-performing bank loans. Things are not easy. It is not clear whether the government would be able to apply such "popular" bills even if it were able to vote them.

Although it has not been clearly said, it seems that the government is preparing to increase VAT. Is such a measure grounded? How will it affect consumption? Where will it find its possible application?

In my opinion, March will be crucial for this. If the government fails to provide the required amount of about 7 billion euro, which it cannot secure through internal borrowing, it should obtain some assistance from the European Union.

If this does not happen, the government would be forced to proceed to a dramatic increase in VAT on basic consumer goods, food products. The statement of Minister of Finance Yanis Varoufakis that the government will increase VAT only on goods that will not affect the majority of citizens is funny, to put it mildly. Obviously, it will increase the tax on goods that can bring an increase in government revenue.

So far, it is not clear how this goal can be achieved, as in periods of illiquidity taxpayers refrain from paying VAT and it is clear from the statistics - the obligations due to unpaid taxes amount to 1 billion euro for the time being. Moreover, we do not yet know the exact amount that will enter the state funds. Imposing the tax does not mean that it will be received.

The problems to be solved are very serious and they are due to Varoufakis’ theory, according to which Greece wants no credit, having failed to secure debt restructuring prior to that. He has been repeating this theory since 2010, when he was still an adviser to George Papandreou. But the difference between thinking of a theory and becoming a finance minister of a country and implementing it is huge. The last tranche of the aid package amounting to 7.2 billion euro, which he refused to take, may lead to Greece’s default, de facto and de jure.

Has the government managed to handle deposit outflows from banks and is a banking crisis possible?

I think it has not. Deposit outflow continues. Allegedly, the real money in Greek banks amounts to less than 5 billion euro at present and it is not yet clear when this process will stop.

While the cabinet itself continues to cause instability and concerns about Greece's exit from the euro zone, there will be capital flight. This is quite logical.

Those who are withdrawing their money now are holders of small deposits in the range of 5-10-12 thousand euro. Big "fish" transferred theirs abroad a long time ago.

Do you think that the government measures to secure funds in the state budget include a cut in bank deposits?

There is no money in the banks which is why it is not doing so. If the government paid its debts to the IMF and the bonds due in March, it would have no money to pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month. If there were no money and it decided to cut deposits, it would not obtain money in fact because the nominal value of the deposits might be 130 billion euro but their actual value is well below 10 percent for the time being and in violation of the "Basel 2" agreement. So, whatever they cut from the less than 5 billion euro available, this money will not be sufficient to pay salaries and pensions.

How has Greece managed to set against itself not only Germany, but also Spain and Portugal?

This is because nobody can accept that you go and say that you do not recognise the contracts signed by the previous government. Agreements are concluded between states, not between governments. By this logic, no government would admit the signature affixed by the previous one.

The second reason is that you cannot say that I, the party that won 36% of the votes of 10 million Greeks, will change the whole of Europe. This cannot happen. The rest cannot accept that. And this is even truer in the case of Spain, Portugal and Ireland, which have made sacrifices and managed to emerge from their memoranda.

Not to mention other countries where the standard of living is much lower than in Greece but who still participate in the rescue programme. Precisely those categories of countries are the most opposed to Greece now.

How long will this cabinet survive in your opinion, especially in view of the permanent thoughtless actions of its members?

The life of each government is directly related to the profitability of the opposition. Currently there is no opposition in Greece. New Democracy is entering the phase of introversion, PASOK is virtually non-existent and Stavros Theodorakis’ Potami party aims at entering the government, not at overthrowing it.

In this situation, the government can survive unless something goes wrong, for example banks run out of money and put a ceiling of 100 euro per week. Then things will totally change.

Germany and the rest of the member states do not want Greece to leave the euro zone. There is an intermediate point between implementing the programme of SYRIZA and exiting the euro zone at which the radical left can reconsider its positions. This can only happen in the event of a serious blow such as emptying ATMs, which will make Greek voters and mostly pensioners, who voted for SYRIZA, aware that things are not so easy.

What is the place of Golden Dawn in this situation?

I think we overestimate its powers. The limits of its influence became apparent when it took the blow of the judicial investigation after the murder of Pavlos Fyssas. I do not think it is able to play the game it has planned, namely the imposition of violence and militarization of political activity.

A new generation of Golden Dawners may appear to be more moderate and to turn Golden Dawn into a formation similar to the National Front of Marine Le Pen. Otherwise, it will be a party with a rate of 7-8%.

What should be noted is the role of leader of Independent Greeks Panos Kammenos, whose strength is quite underestimated. He is clever and cunning. He won 4.5% of the election vote because of a very smart campaign. Now he is the head of a "safe" ministry in the sense that it will not undertake painful austerity measures, etc. At the same time, however, it allows him to create a mechanism in the country through which to develop his clientelistic relations. I think Kammenos will be a constant problem for New Democracy and Greece.