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The Greek government has less and less room for manoeuvre, as the critical date of 20 August, when the bonds to the European Central Bank have to be paid, is coming dangerously close. The government already must get its act together if it really wants to sign the final agreement. According to the scenario, which should be followed strictly, the final document between the two sides, which will tease out their common ground and frictions, will have to be ready on Sunday evening, or Monday at the latest. Everything should be wrapped up by 13 August, then be sent to the Eurogroup, then to the national parliaments, and finally voted in the Greek national assembly on 18 August.

Delays will result in a new bridging loan

If the two sides fail to wrap it all up by August 13, then they will try to do so by August 18, but this will push them closer to the bridging loan scenario instead of the bailout's first tranche.

This is the scenario endorsed by Germany as well. Even if the European Commission denied yesterday the Bild publication on the bridging arrangement, today's Suddeutsche Zeitung states that Wolfgang Schaeuble apparently told his associates: here we are dealing with a programme worth €80 billion or even more, therefore we need a solid foundation to underpin it. The German finance minister is not in a hurry to sign something that will put him in a corner, unless it is perfectly clear what commitments Greece makes before the creditors and whether it can live up to them.

A tight schedule with five points, which the agreement will hinge on:

1. Today (7 August ), the representatives of the Eurozone finance ministries are meeting (an expanded Euroworking Group), as the EC spokeswoman, Mina Andreeva, said. They will be informed about how the negotiations' progress, and will draft a new Memorandum accordingly.
2. On Saturday or Sunday (8-9 August), this draft will be sent to the Greek government. The Greek side will have very little time available to make remarks or disagree as the draft will have to be returned for a final rendition by Monday (10 August) or Tuesday (11 August) at the latest.
3. On 13 August, the Greek government should endorse the new Memorandum, but also the package of preliminary measures, to be given the green light for the release of the bailout's first tranche.
4. Another Eurogroup meeting will be held on 14 August, to officially approve the new Memorandum and obtain its endorsement by other countries.
5. By August 18, the parliaments of the Eurozone countries should have approved the new Memorandum.

If this timetable is met, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) must release the first tranche of the rescue programme up until 20 August.

The negotiations' flashpoints

According to Kathimerini, the Greek government and the creditors have already agreed on 90% of the requested measures to be voted on. The remaining 10% include the controversial issues that put a spanner in the agreement's works.

Here they are:

• The minimum guaranteed income to replace social benefits, including those for pensioners – not discussed yet. The Greek finance ministry says that the matter will be out of the way by Saturday.
• The problem with primary surpluses – with a potential to mess up the whole affair. The higher the estimates, the stricter the measures; otherwise the funding needs will be higher and the loan might go well beyond €90 billion.
• The bad loans. The Greek Government does not go along with the scenario involving the creation of 'bad bank' to take over all the bad loans. But the creditors have not yet given the green light to the Greek proposals.
• The new privatisation Superfund. There are differences of opinion as to what legal status the new fund should have and what will happen with the privatisation deals already started by the existing State Property Utilisation Fund.
• Early retirement. Today, the government is expected to submit its proposal in this area. According to sources, the proposal includes an increase of the retirement age by five years for both men and women, in all social security funds. This implies that someone who is 50 today, will retire at 55, i.e. in 2020. Sources indicate that an agreement has been reached on a transitional period from 2016 to 2021, and the implementation of the measure will commence immediately. In any case, it is certain that the general retirement age is set at 67, with a reduced pension retirement possible at 62.
• Changes in the taxation of farmers. At this stage, only changes for the farmers' diesel will pass, plus eventually another amendment or two.
• The question of which OECD Toolkit ΙΙ will be voted now.
• Which professions will be liberalized (e.g. the ones in engineering).
• The abolition of third party taxes that flow into insurance funds accounts.
• The issue of retailers working on Sundays.