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Anastasia Balezdrova

17 hours after the start of the EU summit Greece and its creditors came to agreement. Thus, literally at the last moment, the country avoided the total disaster that would have taken it out of the common European currency.

Now the government is facing the challenge of pushing the first package of laws that contain the budgetary measures stipulated in the reform agreement. The voting on Friday made it clear that the government had lost the parliamentary majority and this fact would portend changes.

Political communications advisor Eftichis Vardoulakis explains them for GRReporter.

Mr. Vardoulakis, what political changes are expected within SYRIZA following the agreement with creditors?

I think that one part of SYRIZA will not adhere to the line of the Prime Minister. These people have followed specific rhetoric and strategic focus for many years. They do not have the necessary weight nor the knowledge and experience to understand that many of these things are anachronisms. Therefore, I think that many of them will not support the bills during the voting in parliament and they will pass with the favourable vote of the opposition. It is certain that at least 13 SYRIZA MPs will not support them.

As early elections are not yet possible, at least not before the voting on certain laws, the legislative work will be carried out with the support of the opposition. However, there will be early elections soon. I do not know whether they will happen in two or three months, but they are certainly in store.

Is it possible for SYRIZA to split?

I could not exclude that possibility. Because if a large number of MPs left the party, they either would have to return and run again with SYRIZA during the elections and humiliate themselves to a certain extent or would have to create a separate party in the left of the political spectrum. They would thus try to enter parliament and take with them a part of the winning negative vote in the referendum (61%).

Do you think that the Greek Prime Minister will earnestly implement the agreement?

At first, he will have no choice but to support the bills and implement the agreement. In addition, it depends how resilient he will be. From now on, Alexis Tsipras must begin to govern. He has not governed a single day over the past six months. He has been constantly preoccupied with tactics, negotiations and political games. The moment is ripe for him to turn from a tactician into a ruler. I do not know whether he is ready for it or whether he will yield to the temptation to rotate around himself and to invent internal enemies, etc.

How do you see the future of this government? Do you see a new composition of the cabinet? What will it involve?

Tsipras is not possible to continue with the same cabinet and pass all laws with the support of the opposition. At some point, he will have to reshuffle the cabinet and introduce new faces in it to help the opposition to vote in favour of the laws in parliament.

The bills that will bring in force the budgetary measures and reforms under the agreement cannot pass without the opposition. The result of the voting on Saturday showed that Tsipras had lost the parliamentary majority.

It is not yet clear whether the composition of the cabinet will include representatives of other parties. In any case, the opposition does not want to participate. It wants Tsipras to continue to be Prime Minister in order for them to support the critical bills without being involved in another way.

Isn’t that a hopeless situation?

Yes of course. This is a temporary solution, simply because the laws must be adopted to avoid a total disaster, it certainly is not a long-term perspective.

What do you expect to happen to president of parliament Zoe Konstantopoulou who did not support the government in the negotiations?

I think she cannot continue to occupy that position. She will be forced to resign.

There is also a view that a no confidence vote against her is possible too.

I think that she would prefer to resign to the probability of being removed. It all would depend on whether SYRIZA would prefer a harder line. Surely, she could not continue to be president of parliament and interfere with legislative work at the same time, because if it happened, she would actually be an opposition to the government. It would not tolerate that. At some point, the opposition would submit a no confidence vote against her and it would collect the required number of votes. Therefore, I think she would be told "to resign or we will remove you otherwise."

Could Zoe Konstantopoulou lead the left party that you mentioned previously?

Yes, she could, because, as a person, she has a very special temperament and it is unclear how far she could go. I think if she went that far, where there is no turning back, she would try to head this political space. And it is available. They fed it and supported it for five years.

Do you expect social unrest?

No, I do not. I think many people are irritated by what has happened whereas others are aware that SYRIZA has been telling tall stories all that time. That means society has been forced to become mature. Of course, there will be reactions and protests but I do not think they will lead to serious disturbances.