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After the total failure of the negotiations between Athens and its lenders, it is expected that, within the context of the European Union meeting in Brussels tonight, another meeting will take pace that will probably determine the fate of Greece.

It will be held at the request of Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and involve the leaders of Germany, France, the European Commission, the European Council, the European Central Bank and the Council of euro zone finance ministers.

Although German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stressed that neither today’s nor her meeting with Alexis Tsipras in Berlin this coming Monday can replace the Eurogroup, senior European banking circles claim that they are the last chance for triggering the negotiations and for providing funding to the Greek economy that is in a critical condition.

What would happen to Greece in the case of another, and probably last, failure in Brussels and Berlin? The analysis by Greek journalist and commentator Costas Stoupas of economic edition capital.gr, which GRReporter reproduces in its full form, provides the answer to that question.

1) Alexis like Maduro without oil...

We should not expect big changes in the coming week. Traps are surrounding the government of Mr. Tsipras from all sides.

The traps in the country are related to the lenders who do not intend to put their hands in their pockets if Greece does not prove with actions that it will implement the reforms that will transform it from the current state of a Balkan "fraudstan" where the state regulates everything into a European country and economy.

It is also trapped by the social groups of the so-called "high echelons" of the financial system that is financed with public funds, which voted believing that their privileges would be preserved, whether these would be the average pensions to the amount of 4,500 euro like those in the Public Power Corporation, the balloon early pensions or the profits of closed professions. This is the largest category, but also the first to withdraw its support from the government if it imposes restrictions on withdrawals from ATMs or in the presence of problems with the payment of salaries and pensions in the public sector...

Let us not delude ourselves. Mr. Tsipras is only now beginning to see the "abyss" that will reveal the total destruction. The fact that he is "under siege" from all sides is not allowing him to be flexible. Investment in populism will bring yields to him while the majority will feel certain that wages and pensions will be paid and in euro at that.

Neither of those major strategic judgments and neither of those options that have led to the ruling of Mr. Tsipras have been confirmed. What are they?

Union...

SYRIZA bet on a union that would have changed the balance and the status quo.

Establishing a government on the basis of the rhetoric against the memorandum of economic aid has not only failed to contribute towards the creation of a "Union of the South" against Germany, but also led to the unification of all (the euro zone countries) around Germany, despite the unsuccessful and abusive actions of Berlin. With the exception of the years of military dictatorship, Greece has never been more isolated in Europe than it is at present, and national catastrophes always followed whenever the country was isolated from its partners.

Wrong architecture...                                         

Despite its weaknesses, not only is the euro zone not in a period of deepening problems and contradictions, but there are already signs of activation of the economy. All other countries where memoranda have been applied have already emerged from them and are now starting to function normally again. France and Italy are advancing with the reforms and their results in the economy are expected soon. By launching the programme for quantitative easing (QE), the European Central Bank supports the reforms. Greece seems to have missed the train.

The representatives of SYRIZA and Mr. Varoufakis fuelled the delusion that another euro zone, closer to their positions, is possible. Precisely these positions are completely isolated at the meetings of euro zone finance ministers and the EU summits.
 
Economic reconstruction

So far the government has not presented a plan for the economic and productive reconstruction of the country. Fragmentary statements are being made that are contradictory and aim to destroy even the small remaining productive base through the intervention of the corrupt, bureaucratic and failed state in the economy.

Consigning the Ministry of Productive Reconstruction to Mr. Lafazanis and the General Secretariat for Industrial Development to Mr. Tolios is the tasteless joke in this story. Both have never worked in the productive sector and both are supporters of the Soviet economic model that had collapsed, revealing the poverty of millions of people.

Maduro model

Already in the first days after the government took office I wrote that there were two options before Mr. Tsipras. One was to act on the example of Lula da Silva in Brazil with a mixture of policy measures to address the humanitarian crisis in combination with attracting foreign investment in order to achieve economic development.

The second was to become like Nicolas Maduro without oil. Bearing in mind that supermarket shelves in Venezuela are empty despite the large oil exports, we could imagine what would happen in Greece...