Photo: Anastasia Balezdrova
The heated debates in Brussels are provoking discussions in Greece. Time is running out for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to take the final decision whereas the coalition of SYRIZA and Independent Greeks is already facing its first major rupture. It is expected to happen during today's roll-call vote on the bill to grant Greek citizenship that Independent Greeks are preparing not to support for ideological reasons concerning the possibility of granting citizenship to the children of immigrants. Although there is no actual risk of not accepting the law as SYRIZA, Potami and PASOK MPs will support it, New Democracy and PASOK are stressing that the government is already losing its parliamentary majority.
This is not currently an essential problem for the government but it certainly shows what would happen if the possible agreement were submitted for a vote in parliament. In the event that the positive votes of today's coalition partners do not exceed 151, this will surely provoke galloping political events.
The political and journalistic circles in Athens are discussing many scenarios and none of them can be excluded. Forming a government of national salvation from this parliament is considered the most likely development that will be followed by early elections or a referendum, and changing the coalition partner by SYRIZA. So far, the government has rejected all scenarios.
For his part, New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras has specified his proposal to achieve national consensus, stressing the need for a change of government without elections. In an interview with the magazine Crash, he adds that neither he nor the current Greek Prime Minister should be involved in this office. "If Mr. Tsipras lost his parliamentary majority it would not be right for him to continue to be Prime Minister. In any case, my goal is not to take part in the government that would form from this parliament. The problem is that it is impossible to immediately announce elections because the country cannot bear them. And if Mr. Tsipras lost the parliamentary majority, the only option that would remain would be to proceed to an agreement with Europe, with the support of SYRIZA MPs who agree with our support. A government that would trigger all this could form in this way," said the former Prime Minister. According to sources, many representatives of other parties support his position.
Antonis Samaras is indicated as a leader in the attempted formation of a pro-European front with the participation of all political forces that are for keeping Greece in the euro zone. In this regard, his successive meetings with Greece’s former Prime Ministers Costas Karamanlis, Costas Simitis and probably Lucas Papademos in the coming days are being followed with particular interest. According to unconfirmed information, in the event of early elections due to a failure to reach an agreement or to achieving one that is impossible to be adopted by parliament, the pro-European parties will possibly take part in them as a single coalition.
Last night's failure to reach an agreement has revived the early elections scenarios and some are even indicating 26 July and 2 August as possible dates.
The majority of Greek parties are adamant that holding early elections could only have negative consequences for the country but the likelihood of them happening should not be excluded. Some sources say that Alexis Tsipras could announce elections even if parliament voted the probable agreement without any problems. His aim in this case would be to strengthen his position and regain voters’ confidence.
At the same time, many commentators believe that the possible agreement would have the support of SYRIZA MPs but not of the coalition partner, Independent Greeks, resulting in another small party, Potami and even PASOK, replacing it in the coalition government.
But even if the vote in parliament were smooth and the agreement obtained the votes of the two ruling parties, there would be changes again. Analysts are adamant that cabinet reshuffling would follow to remove those ministers whose work is considered unsatisfactory as well as those who are supposed to thwart the implementation of the agreement.